Pleasingly Average Offense with RISP

A recent article in the Hardball Times plotted each of the American League teams with respect to their number of at bats with runners in scoring position (RISP) and their batting average in those situations. Inspection of the plot reveals a couple of things that are obvious and unsurprising:

- Detroit and New York (two of the best team offenses in the AL) are outdistancing the rest of the league in opportunities with RISP.

- Oakland and Chicago (two of the worst team offenses in the AL) are suffering from a lack of opportunities and a failure to capitalize in those occasions.

There are also some surprises to be found. The most surprising thing that caught my attention was that the Twins seemed to be outperforming some potent offenses. They had more ABRISP than Cleveland, Boston, and Texas, while having a better BARISP than New York, Cleveland, and Boston.

Now, as any Twins blogger can tell you, the Twins offense has not been something to be described as potent this season. Rather, they have been maddeningly inconsistent and, at times, depressingly incompetent. Can these two thoughts be reconciled? Can the Twins be performing well with RISP, with plenty of chances, and still be the sometimes putrid product that fans have come to dread?

On Saturday against the Angels, Justin Morneau led off the bottom of the second inning with a double. The Twins hitters would get four plate appearances with RISP as they went single, groundout, strikeout, and popout without scoring a run. They generated lots of plate appearances, even got a hit, but didn’t actually produce any offense. This kind of inning is the reason that the Twins can be where they are on the aforementioned plot without having a similar offense to the other teams in the same area.

Here is a look at top 5 teams in the American League in plate appearances with RISP have performed:

Team	PARISP	BARISP	OPSRISP	PA/HR	PA/XBH
NY Yankees	1132	.274	.772	45.3	14.7
Detroit Tigers	1077	.321	.895	37.1	11.2
Cleveland Indians	1064	.261	.770	35.5	13.6
Boston Red Sox	1063	.270	.807	40.9	12.4
Minnesota Twins	1056	.281	.788	42.2	13.9

Once again, the Twins don’t really stick out here, their OPS is right in the middle, they don’t hit HRs as often as the other teams but the extra base hit frequency isn’t terribly out of line. So, the problem doesn’t look like it is with production with RISP. The story of stranded Justin Morneau that I related at the beginning of this article doesn’t seem to be indicative of the Twins production in general (although it certainly feels like it has happens often).

Moving forward, the top 5 teams in the AL in runs scored and the Twins are shown below, as well as the percentage of their runs that came in plate appearances with RISP. This is not a perfect number, because it will also include batters driving themselves in with homeruns and runners scoring from first, but we’ll tackle that after we take a look at this.

Detroit Tigers	78.5%
Cleveland Indians	74.5%
New York Yankees	77.0%
Boston Red Sox	77.5%
Texas Rangers	75.5%
Minnesota Twins	82.0%

First of all, these are essentially the same teams as before although the Rangers have scored more runs than the Twins (who rank eighth in the AL in R/G). Looking at the percentages we begin to get an idea of where the Twins offense is failing. On average the top 5 offenses in the league are scoring 76.6% of their runs in PARISP. The Twins have a significantly higher percentage than that (82.0%) which indicates that if the Twins don’t have their runners in scoring position they are much less likely to drive in a run than these other teams.

In order to try to approximate the trouble that Minnesota has scoring runners from first, I subtracted all homeruns and any runners that scored from first on homeruns. I did not find a time-efficient way to account for runners scoring from first in 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, and bases loaded situations, so this remains a rough approximation, but it backs up my previous point. The Twins remain the highest percentage on the list, and in fact, have further separated themselves (in the wrong direction) from the average of the other 5 teams (67.9%).

Detroit Tigers	70.6%
Cleveland Indians	64.1%
New York Yankees	69.5%
Boston Red Sox	69.2%
Texas Rangers	66.2%
Minnesota Twins	73.7%

Before we finish, here’s one last point about the Twins not being able to score runners from first at the same rate as the elite offenses of the AL. In situations where there was only a runner on first, the Twins are, unsurprisingly, the least likely to score that runner. Of course there are lots of other situations that aren’t accounted for here, but it’s another point toward the conclusion that the Twins lack of power is all that is holding them back from being among the best offenses in the American League.

Team	R	R/PA
Detroit Tigers	35	19.0
Cleveland Indians	44	16.1
New York Yankees	41	17.5
Boston Red Sox	37	19.5
Texas Rangers	37	16.5
Minnesota Twins	32	21.0

The offense is getting people into scoring position and hitting at a reasonable clip when they get there. However, they haven’t been able to complement that RISP success with a few extra base hits that score runners that are not in scoring position. I’m nowhere near the first to say this, and I’m sure I won’t be the last, but it would very much help the Twins to pick up a powerful bat, either at the trade deadline or in the offseason. In fact, an upgrade in this area is one the few differences betwixt the Twins and the best offenses in the AL.

TWIT: Hooray

Weekly Roundup

Four games, four quality starts, four close wins. That recipe yields success under just about any circumstances, and when the offense shows some limited signs of life at the same time, you end up with a sweep of a quality opponent. Even though the Twins outscored the A’s by a total of eight runs over four games, they pulled their home record from a disappointing 22-20 to a more reasonable 26-20, simultaneously reasserting their position as a borderline contender. The formula was relatively unchanged for each of the four wins: the starting pitchers gave up a total of three runs in the first five innings of all of the games, giving the offense a chance to get ahead. In fact, the only real damage done to any of the four starters came against Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva in the seventh innings of their respective starts. The offense managed only one homeruns for the shortened week, but an astounding five triples for the week helped to offset the lack of power. It is unreasonable to believe that the Twins can continue winning games without hitting homeruns, and the pitching rotation has spent a whole season demonstrating why they will not put up 100% quality starts. Nonetheless, this week’s games were extremely helpful in the standings and in the psyche of the organization. It gives Terry Ryan a reason to aggressively pursue a missing piece- hopefully a real DH/LF to go with Kubel not named Rondell- and it keeps the pressure on the teams at the top of the division, who have shown a propensity to crack over the last two seasons.

Before moving on, I wanted to comment on Garrett Jones, who has really impressed me in his limited action so far. I’m not trying to draw big conclusions from his 2-7 start with a double and a walk- I’m more concerned with his approach at the plate. His minor league statistical profile made it look like he might have difficulty adjusting to good major league pitching that could actually make him swing and miss with some consistency. He got by in the minors by swinging often and hitting the ball hard, keeping up a so-so batting average with plenty of power, but not many walks. Many hitters have followed the same path, then seen their contact rate dip so low in the majors that the power alone cannot sustain such a miserable OBP. So far, Jones has shown a willingness to work the count and wait for a good pitch. On Sunday, he churned out a walk in a 7 pitch plate appearance, fouling off a 3-2 pitch on the outside corner before reaching base on the next pitch at the letters. It also seems as though he is relatively comfortable with fastballs and breaking balls, as he has made contact on both. While mistake hitters can have value, I’d take an all-around hitter who could develop any day. I’m not expecting Jones to be a superstar, or even a starter, but if he can catch enough fly balls to keep his spot as the team’s best lefty pinch hitter.

Biggest Success

Mike Cuddyer absolutely ripped his way out of a mediocre last month by going 7-13 in the Oakland series, showing lots of benefit from his extra rest. With three extra base hits and two walks, Cuddyer managed to put together an absolutely phenomenal line of .538/.563/.846. Continued mashing by Cuddyer takes some of the stress off of the bottom of the order, as run production counts at the margins no matter who starts it.

To me, the player who was even more impressive than Cuddyer was Luis Castillo, someone who I have lambasted repeatedly for his inability to hit for any power. Even Bert Blyleven got in on the act this week, pointing out that Castillo had only 11 extra base hits out of 94 total hits on the year after his first triple of the week. But Castillo didn’t stop there, he hit a double and another triple before the series ended, meaning he matched 30% of his XBH count for the season in one weekend. The 11 total bases matched Cuddyer for the team lead, and he also scored and drove in three runs, walked three times, and kept up his stellar ability to avoid strikeouts altogether. Hard as I have been on Luis Castillo in the past, this sort of hitting erases all of that criticism and helps the team win ballgames.

Biggest Disappointment

I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth, as a perfect week is a perfect week. There were a couple of minor blips on the radar during the week, but nothing worthy of being a “biggest disappointment.” I was impressed by the fact that Jones, Tyner, Cirillo, and Redmond combined to go 10-22, each adding one extra base hit. Their contributions more than made up for a bad weekend from Jason Kubel, who was hitless in 10 plate appearances.

Reyes also looked a little shaky, not giving up any earned runs, but allowing two inherited runners to score on Saturday after throwing Mark Kotsay a dead hanger on the only pitch he threw that day. He also walked three for the week while only retiring five. Depending on the needs of the rotation, Perkins may be a better situational option than Reyes down the stretch, at least once he makes it all the way back to full health.

Lastly, Rincon continued making the case for Guerrier and Neshek in high leverage situations, coming in to close out Johan Santana’s Friday gem with a five run lead, then promptly giving up three earned runs, hitting a batter, an serving up a homer before Joe Nathan had to come in to put out the fire. I keep saying, bust out he MRI for this guy before he does any more damage to the team or himself.

On the Horizon

As I said last week, the Twins are in the midst of their toughest home stand of the year, and maybe the most important one. After a day off Monday, they host the Tigers and the Angels for three games apiece, both teams leading their divisions and both teams playing quite well at the moment, especially in the starting rotations.

The Tigers will send Robertson, Miller, and Bonderman in the three games, giving the Twins a chance to prove themselves against lefty pitching. Bonderman has given them trouble lately, but then again, at 10-1, he’s giving the whole league trouble. In his last start against the Twins, he went eight shutout innings, striking out seven, so Scott Baker will have his work cut out for him in what Twins fans must hope will become a pitchers’ duel. If it is any consolation, Bonderman is actually 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA for his career against the Twins, but a lot of the damage came when he was too young for the majors and the Tigers were too bad for the majors.

If rotations hold, the Angels will send Lackey, Weaver, and Colon for the weekend. Lackey has been solid all year, keeping his name among the league leaders in wins, but his ERA has been a shade below his peripherals from the outset, so some regression is likely. Whether that will manifest itself in this one game is another matter beyond my powers of prognostication. Weaver has been good since returning from a short DL sting, and Colon keeps winning games, even though he keeps giving up runs. Part of the credit for the starters’ good records comes from the excellent bullpen, where Shields, K-Rod, Speier and others have made a habit of slamming the door. The Twins will have to scratch out runs early and pitch well to win the series. If they do, it could be an extremely entertaining brand of baseball.

The Big Picture

A four game sweep means that the Twins are playing pretty well. Unfortunately for them, most of the other AL contenders who matter to Minnesota are also playing well. Boston has slumped a bit of late, and Oakland is obviously sliding, but Seattle continues to win games, New York is looking better and better, and the AL Central leaders have yet to show any signs of backing down. For the Twins to make the playoffs, they have to catch either Cleveland or Detroit, who alternately hold 5-7 game leads on the Twins, but the also have to pass Seattle (currently 2.5 games up), and hold off New York. The Yankees, in particular, could make quite a run as their pitching staff rounds into form with a fully ready Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang, and Phil Hughes. The offense is not what many thought it was, but with Jeter and A-Rod performing as they have, they will score plenty of runs to support that pitching staff. Look out for them over the next couple of months, and keep an eye on their box scores while you wait for Cleveland or Detroit to slip, as the Yankees might be there to swoop in for the Wild Card berth.

June Strength of Schedule

Check out the earlier post on strength of schedule for explanations of these numbers.

First up is the AL Central:

AL Central	May Record	May SOS	Expected June SOS	Actual June SOS	Difference	June Record	Expected July SOS
Chicago White Sox	12-14	.473	.439	.472	-33	10-18	.524
Cleveland Indians	19-11	.526	.468	.474	-6	15-13	.488
Detroit Tigers	16-12	.547	.496	.514	-18	16-10	.536
Kansas City Royals	11-17	.543	.504	.511	-7	15-12	.524
Minnesota Twins	13-14	.502	.530	.504	26	15-12	.526

The Tigers continued to win in June, actually improving on their .571 winning percentage of May with a .615 winning percentage in June. They did that despite having the most difficult opponents of the teams in the division. The Tigers won series against the Indians, Mets, Brewers, and Braves. All of those teams were over .500 when the Tigers met them. The Indians played just a touch over .500 against a much easier schedule. The Indians missed opportunities by losing two of three to both Cincinnati and Washington. The surprise of the month was the Kansas City Royals who finished the month of June three games above .500, the highlight being a three game sweep of the Angels.

The Twins, for the most part, kept pace with their divisional opponents, they lost a couple games in the standings to the Tigers, but stayed right with the Indians. The difference in expected SOS and actual SOS comes from the Braves, Mets, and Brewers coming back to earth a bit after hot starts, and the Nationals playing the Twins tougher than one might expect. The Twins can't afford to just keep pace with the Tigers and Indians anymore. They have remained on the perimeter of striking distance for most of the season, but now is the time to make their move.

Coming up, the Tigers have a tough month, with the Angels, A's, Mariners, Indians, and Twins all on their schedule. They have already won 2 of 3 from Cleveland, so it could be more of the same from Detroit. Cleveland has a relatively easy schedule, with series against KC, Chicago, and Texas. However, they also have the aforementioned series with Detroit, along with games against Boston and Minnesota. If Cleveland can beat the teams it is supposed to beat, it should be a pretty straightforward July for the Tribe.

As I have already mentioned, the Twins have a big month. They have division rivals Cleveland and Detroit, in addition to series against Oakland, Los Angeles (of Anaheim), and the Yankees. By the end of the month we should know where the Twins stand in relation to the best teams of the AL Central. They've been keeping the deficit manageable, but now is the time for some big wins against tough opponents.

For completeness, here’s the remainder of the American League:

AL East	May Record	May SOS	Expected June SOS	Actual June SOS	Difference	June Record	Expected July SOS
Baltimore Orioles	15-13	.515	.528	.504	24	8-17	.477
Boston Red Sox	20-8	.519	.504	.522	-18	13-14	.468
New York Yankees	13-15	.514	.532	.440	92	14-11	.480
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	11-15	.469	.505	.478	27	11-17	.535
Toronto Blue Jays	12-16	.515	.506	.444	62	14-13	.530

AL West	May Record	May SOS	Expected June SOS	Actual June SOS	Difference	June Record	Expected July SOS
Los Angeles Angels	18-11	.511	.456	.470	-14	17-9	.492
Oakland Athletics	14-13	.461	.528	.469	59	15-13	.536
Seattle Mariners	16-14	.532	.479	.495	-16	18-9	.505
Texas Rangers	9-20	.479	.502	.555	-53	14-12	.564

TWIT: Going round in circles

Weekly Roundup

For two games this week, the Twins averaged 16 runs. Over the course of the other six games of the week, they averaged 2.8 runs per game. Friday’s fireworks aside, the Twins squandered the opportunity to make real gains against some of their prime competitors over the last two weeks, leaving themselves right where they have been all season long. Tim Kurkjian and Orel Hershieser summarized it well on Baseball Tonight, ranking the Twins fifth in the American league. That position is respectable, but without any major changes to the roster, is there any chance that they pass Cleveland or Detroit? Even in an era of watered down playoffs, finishing third in one’s own division amounts to a lost season. Just ask the 2006 Chicago White Sox, a 90 win team the appears headed for a fire sale a year later because 90 wins doesn’t always cut it in a division as tough as today’s AL Central. For the Twins, 90 wins remains a troublesome goal, as the would have to go 45-31 in the second half to reach that benchmark of playoff contention.

Nonetheless, a lot of interesting things happened this week. After two walkovers opened the New York series on a sour note, Johan made it clear that he has entered his Cy Young mode for the season, surrendering only 4 hits over seven innings to one of the more dangerous lineups in the league. The very next day, the Twins came back from a 5-2 deficit to tie the game at 5 for 5 innings until Hideki Matsui hit a dramatic two-run homer off of Pat Neshek. The plot thickened in the ninth, when Mariano Rivera could not slam the door, giving up one run and leaving the tying run on base as the game ended. Factoring in Torii’s freak out in the second game, the intrigue of any series at the Stadium, and the fact that it happened over the 4^th of July, and the series was actually quite entertaining, even though the Twins were hopeless in two of the games.

As for the Chicago series, anyone who has watched the team all year was waiting for the other shoe to drop after Friday’s explosion. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take all of the 20 and 12 run games I can get, but it never seemed like a genuine offensive explosion. To me, it looked like Ozzie was more than willing to throw batting practice once it became apparent that each game was out of reach, artificially enhancing the run totals. His discretion proved the better part of valor, as the pitching staff had enough left after the double header to hold the Twins to 4 runs over the next two games. After Friday’s romp, a series split was almost inconceivable. As it turned out, the Twins enter the break with a losing streak, a seven game hill to climb to the playoffs, and very little momentum.

Biggest Success

A lot of players can fit into this category. If we excluded Friday from the calculations, very few players would fit into this category. Friday counts, albeit more so in the run differential column than the wins and losses, so the double header heroes have to get their due. Jason Kubel’s continued improvement netted him a .318/.370/.591 line with two homers and ten RBIs (Kubel is hitting .269/.329/.463 for the last month, so don’t blame the offensive woes on him). Joe Mauer got on base 16 times in 34 plate appearances. Luis Castillo hit .364. Torii Hunter slugged .643. Even Jason Bartlett, with a rough week at .229/.289/.286 managed to cross the plate 9 out of the 11 times he reached base. For all of these relative successes, I expect no one to argue with the selection of Justin Morneau as player of the week.

Morneau started the week in a homerun slump that lasted for nearly two full weeks. He came out of it with a .438/.471/.875 line, aided in no small part to the fact that he started his personal homerun derby four days early. While a 25 point dip in his batting average from last year has made Morneau’s OBP shrink by about 10 points, he is slugging about 20 points better, giving him a park and league adjusted OPS+ of 148, better than the 140 he had last year. He is on a pace to drive in more runs (136), score more runs (105), and hit more home runs (44) than in his MVP season of 2006. I’m not naïve enough to think that he will win another MVP without his team surging to another pennant, but he is quickly securing his position on the short list of great Twins sluggers since Harmon Killebrew. In fact, his average of 17.4 at bats per homerun for his career would rank him third all time in team history, behind Harmon (14.0) and Roy Sievers (17.1). His 13.4 average this year would be the tenth best single season total in team history, second best in the non-Killebrew division (trailing Don Mincher in 1964). In other words, if Morneau continues hitting for power for two more years, there is a good chance that he will go down as the best homerun hitter of the Metrodome era.

Biggest Disappointment

Personally, I was most disappointed by the fact that the team failed to win a single game in which they did not jump out to a large lead. I discussed some of the failings in the intro, so I will be brief. The biggest failure of the week has to be the combination of Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva, the nominal 2-3 starters on the team, who combined to give up 19 runs in 22.2 innings, losing four games in the process. Some of their problems are different- Boof can strike batters out, totaling 10 in his 12.1 innings for the week, and Silva cannot, managing only 3 punchouts in 10.1 innings. Boof tends to have a few good innings before going in the tank, while Silva spends more time getting hammered than Lindsey Lohan. The results are the same, though, with 7 combined losses over the last month and an ERA of 5.18. With Radke and Liriano holding down the middle of the rotation, two guys with 5 ERAs could survive at the back end, but without those reinforcements, it is no wonder that the rotation has slid this year.

The Big Picture

A recent poll on the Twins website asked what has to happen for the Twins to catch Cleveland and/or Detroit in the division. There were four options: Young guns must stabilize rotation; More offense from 3B, SS; Mauer has to stay healthy; Have to acquire a power bat. In my mind, no less than 3 ½ of these things have to come true in order for the Twins to contend.

First, some combination of Baker, Garza, and Slowey has to combined for an ERA close to 4 or below it to function as the middle of the rotation, as described in the last section. With Baker’s recent improvements and Garza’s domination of a tired, blown-out, below-average Chicago lineup on Friday, one could see these two achieving that goal in an extremely optimistic world.

Next, the more offense part mostly has to come from third base. Bartlett has hit .286 with a .345 OBP for the last month, which dovetails nicely with his ability to steal bases and play solid defense. He’s not a power hitter and he never will be one, but a SS with above average OBP skills goes a long way. The same cannot be said for third base, where Nick Punto costs them production on his best day. When he slugs .272 for the season, suffice to say he has not met that “best day” condition. I know that Jeff Cirillo’s knees can’t hold up playing every day, but if he gets starts for the flyball pitchers in the staff- Santana, Bonser, Baker- his defensive liabilities will not show up as much as his .871 OPS over the last month (note to Gardy: excellent job getting him in against lefty pitching. Keep it up). If he gets 60% of the 3B at bats and Punto fills in on defense and groundball pitcher days, the pain of watching Twins’ third basemen will go from torturous to inconvenient.

Keeping Mauer healthy is a no-brainer, as there is simply not enough on-base percentage in front of Morneau and Hunter when he is out of the lineup. To do so, he might need a few more days in the DH slot, and I don’t think it would be the end of the world to have him shag some flies in left if it leads to a few chances to rest his knees and not a permanent position shift. The Yankees did it with Yogi Berra early and late in his career to keep him fresh, and he has a handful of rings to show for his success.

Acquiring a power bat remains a priority. Naturally, we fixate on the big ticket items like Adam Dunn, who could be had for any two guys from the 2002 Twins roster as long as Wayne Krivsky is in the GM chair. But his price tag is too high. If you want to find candidates, look for middle-aged sluggers on teams without postseason hopes. Xavier Nady, anyone? The Pirates need prospects to build for their eternal next year, and Nady has hit .291/.344/.504. He can split LF/DH duties with Kubel, and his bat plays much better than Tyner or Ford.

On the Horizon

Take a deep breath and enjoy the All-Star break…

After the break, the Twins play yet another four game set at home against the A’s, always a tough opponent in the second half. With the days off, we’re sure to see their best pitchers, unless Joe Blanton’s temper tantrum nets him an extended break. On the positive side, the Twins get 10 straight in the Dome (where they have not been at their best this year). On the negative side, they Twins might not play a team with a losing record until July 30^th, when the Royals mercifully return to town. Only Toronto (currently 43-44) provides any sort of respite in the interim. In other words- if you’re going to make a move, do it before it’s too late, Terry.

One Good Week: Scott Baker

SCOTT BAKER June 26 – July 3
(2 GS, 0-1, 1.20 ERA, 15 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 12 K)

From the outset, 2007 was an important season for Scott Baker. He had spent portions of the last two years with the Twins (with varying degrees of success), and this season would go a long way toward determining the role Baker would play with the organization in the future. Coming into the 2007 season, he was one of many young pitchers that were vying for a position in the rotation. Well, we all know how spring training turned out; Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz started the season with the major league team while Baker, Matt Garza, and Kevin Slowey began the season in Rochester at AAA. The two veterans were eventually phased out of the rotation while Slowey and Baker were called up as their replacements.

Baker had an impressive debut campaign in 2005 (see table below for numbers) but followed that up with a bit of a disappointing 2006 (again, the table below has numbers to back me up). Meanwhile, despite his struggles last year, Baker dominated AAA in ’06 and ’07 which only reinforced that he had little to prove except at the major league level. On May 19, Baker was called up and delivered an impressive first start against Milwaukee (8.1 IP, 2 ER). In his next 5 starts, Baker posted an ERA of 8.37 with a WHIP of 1.94 while not lasting 6 innings in any of the five starts. The outlook at that point was less than sunny, but Baker turned things around for at least a week with the two starts noted above. In fact, in his last two starts, the only thing more adept at preventing runs than Baker has been the Twins offense. Baker received one run of support in 16 innings of Twins “offense”.

	GS	W-L	IP	ER	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2005	9	3-3	52.2	20	47	14	32	3.42	1.16	.240
2006	16	5-8	83.1	59	114	16	62	6.37	1.56	.324
2007	8	2-3	47.0	26	50	11	35	4.98	1.30	.273

The Twins offense is not the subject of this article however. Scott Baker’s recent success is. Looking at his numbers season by season it's obvious that opponents were hitting Baker harder in 2006 than his other seasons (BAA and WHIP higher, BB rate constant), resulting in a much higher ERA. Looking at some other rate stats (another table coming up) it is clear that is the result of Scott's HR/FB returning to a more normal 12.5% from an unsustainably low rate in 2005. Also it seems he was a little bit unlucky as the BABIP of his opponents was significantly higher than normal. Once again the .264 BABIP in 2005 is probably unsustainable for a young pitcher like Baker, as examples Fransisco Liriano and Johan Santana had BABIP of .286 and .273 respectively in 2006. Baker's difficulties arose from the fact that he was allowing a lot of HR due to his high HR/FB and his low GB/FB percentage. Even when the ball stayed in the park, batters were reaching safely (probably due to the higher line drive percentage). This year, so far the BABIP has returned to something closer to normal with a corresponding drop in line drive percentage. The HR/FB ratio has remained a bit of a concern, but the effect of that has been mitigated somewhat by the fact that there have been a lot fewer fly balls in general due to an increase in the GB/FB ratio.

	K/9	GB/FB	LD%	HR/FB	BABIP
2005	5.5	0.83	23.8%	7.1%	.264
2006	6.7	0.72	29.5%	12.5%	.355
2007	6.7	1.18	23.4%	13.7%	.305

In Baker's last two starts he has accumulated a WPA of +0.502 compared to -0.857 in his previous 5 starts. He has kept the ball in the park (1 HR in 15 IP, 7.7% HR/FB) while inducing a good amount of ground balls (1.23 GB/FB ratio). Couple that with a slight kick in strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and you have an extremely effective starting pitcher on your hands. Baker has certainly gotten a bit lucky in these starts, evidenced by the .167 BABIP this week. While that is not always going to be the case, the hope is that going forward from here the Twins offense will give Scott a little more breathing room, so that even with the inevitable increase in BABIP and HR/FB, the increased frequency of ground balls and strikeouts will be enough to increase the likelihood of success in Baker's starts this season.

TWIT: A Resounding Yes

Weekly Roundup

First order of business: for one week only, this column is not free. In order to gain access to the rest of the article, I’m requiring that you log onto mlb.com and vote for Pat Neshek in the All-Star Final Vote. You can vote for him because he is a Minnesota Twin, joining the rightly chosen Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau on the roster, but there are better reasons to choose him. Neshek is also one of the most exciting and entertaining players in the major leagues. Because he plays for a middle market in a flyover state, he does not receive nearly the attention he deserves. His style, results, and attitude all make him one of the most fun players in the league to watch and to root for. Even if there are other pitchers with comparable or better results (Hideki Okajima comes to mind), this game is an exhibition in which the exhibit is a collection of the best and most entertaining baseball players in the league. Giving a wider audience a chance to experience the pleasure of seeing Neshek work is exactly why the All-Star game exists in the first place. Not for World Series home field advantage. Not to stroke the egos of the league’s stars. Not to create debate among fans over a game of little consequence. The All-Star game showcases the best and most entertaining aspects of the game of baseball- Pat Neshek is definitely one of those aspects.

In other news, the Twins happened to have an outstanding week in games that actually count. After starting the week by losing two of their first three at the Dome against Toronto, it looked as if judgment week could start on a pretty sour note. The bats came alive on Thursday, though, staking the Twins to an 8-5, come from behind win in Frank Thomas’s 500^th HR game. The teams were quite evenly matched through the series, each scoring and allowing 19 runs over the course of the split set. With Toronto playing well of late, splitting that sort of series is not a bad thing in the least.

The weekend series with the Tigers was far more inspiring, as the team had no trouble with Detroit for the first two games, winning 11-1 Friday, then jumping to an 8-2 lead on Saturday before holding on for an 8-5 win. Try as he might, Scott Baker did not gild the lily on Sunday. Baker’s best start of the season resulted in a complete game, 1-0 loss at the hands of Jeremy Bonderman, and brought his own weekly line to 15 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 1.20 ERA, and a big, fat 0 wins. Don’t blame Scotty, he can’t do it alone if the team doesn’t have the power. The one run they scored between his two starts came after he was lifted in the 2-1 loss against Toronto. The trend is here still a positive one. We already knew that the Twins occasionally have trouble scoring runs. Baker’s improved performance does nothing to change my opinion of the offense, but if he can pitch like a legitimate no. 3 starter the rest of the year, it could be worth 3 or 4 full wins over what I was expecting when he was pitching like a quad-A fill-in.

Biggest Success

Baker’s delayed emergence certainly fits in this category. The offense also had several surprising turns for the better, including a 6-15 (.400) week for Jason Tyner, a homer and a double in 9 plate appearances for Lew Ford, and two more doubles for Jason Kubel. My personal favorite of the week, though, is the strong play of Jason Bartlett, which has become more visible and effectual since his move to the number two spot in the order. One can only abide so much Nick Punto, and as high as Gardy’s threshold seems to be, a week of .087 SLG seemed to further legitimize moving him down in the order. Bartlett responded by going .310/.375/.483 with an outstanding 5 steals in 5 tries. He also led the team with 8 runs scored. Perhaps these numbers do not jump off of the screen, but they absolutely mark a step in the right direction for one of the Twins players who was actually playing below his head, rather than predictably failing (i.e.- Nick Punto).

Biggest Disappointment

Last week, I lamented the struggles and probable injury of Juan Rincon. This week, I would like to broaden the scope by casting a wider net at the about half of the bullpen. The Twins loss on Monday, 8-5 at the hands of the Blue Jays, was a rare case of Matt Guerrier disappointing the team by giving up 3 runs on four hits in an inning and a third. I do not blame Guerrier for that misgiving; I blame the rest of the bullpen for forcing him into so huge number of high-leverage situations. Guerrier, Neshek, and Nathan have been the only reliable relievers of late, and they have paid a price for it. Consider the following:

-In June alone, Guerrier was asked to work on back-to-back days three separate times. In all three cases, he was asked to pitch beyond one inning on the second day. Remember that Guerrier is a young pitcher who was injured last year and who has never been pushed to work back-to-back days with any frequency.

-Former bullpen stalwarts Juan Rincon and Dennys Reyes combined for a total of 14.1 IP for the month of June, fewer than Guerrier pitched by himself. Reyes, limited by injury at the start of the month, remains in situational duty, while Rincon struggles to get batters out (7.27 ERA for the month).

-Joe Nathan pitched only 10 innings for the entire month. Gardenhire may be falling into the Trevor Hoffman trap, whereby a manager limits his closer to very little besides save situations, keeping him fresh, but hurting the team by keeping one of the best pitchers out of the game. He appeared in only 4 non-save situations all month, two of them being tie games in the ninth or later. Giving him one or two of Guerrier’s late-game appearances in non-save situations may help keep the bullpen fresh across the board and prevent bad games like Monday’s.

I do not mean to be overly critical of the bullpen management, which is definitely one of Gardenhire’s strengths. Moreso, I feel that the biggest disappointment of the week is the realization that the team has only three dependable relievers in the bullpen right now. And as the Yankees have shown over the last few years, a team that relies on a few relievers all season tends to burn out in the postseason.

On the Horizon

Seven games in New York and Chicago. There are no surprises here. The Yankees have lost 8 of 10 games, which one can take to mean in a couple of ways. Are they a sleeping giant, waiting to go off for 35 runs in a three game series, or are they just hitting rock bottom, where even the Twins can walk all over them. We have three games to find out, and the Twins will have to solve Clemens, Wang, and Mussina to keep up with a geriatric, but powerful offense. Recent struggles aside, none of those three pitchers have been Minnesota favorites over the years, Mussina in particular.

Chicago also seems to be bottoming out. The trade talk surrounding the team does not center on acquiring Ken Griffey, for once, but includes whispers of the word “firesale.” Personally, I do not think Mark Buehrle should be the one to go, with older guys like Jose Contreras likely to fetch a decent return. Jermaine Dye seems like a good candidate to be traded, but with as many high-minors pitching prospects as the team acquired last year, Kenny Williams ought to be thinking about building for 2009, not 1012. Two more interesting notes on the series regarding Twins pitchers: Johan Santana will likely do is side work in one of the double-header games on Friday, something I have been wanting to see for years. Also, although it is currently “TBA,” Matt Garza will finally get another crack at starting in the majors in one of those Friday games, as well. Here’s hoping that he makes good on his complaints about being passed over.

The Big Picture

Last week, I discussed how the Twins were entering the most important two week stretch of the season so far. Through one week, the acquitted themselves quite well, very nearly sweeping the best team they will play through the four series. With another 4-3 week, all on the road against the Yankees and White Sox, the Twins will likely go into the All-Star break about 5-7 manageable games out of the Central lead, and slightly closer to the Wild Card. If Scott Baker has turned over a new leaf and plays the second half of the season with an ERA closer to 3 than to 6, and Terry Ryan makes good on his promise to rent a hitter, I think making up 4 or 5 games on a potential Wild Card team is eminently feasible. For now, I do not want to jinx the solid stretch the team has started, so I will stop. In the meantime, remember to vote early and often for Pat Neshek.

The Sinister Side of the Twins

The word “left” comes from ‘lyft’ which means worthless in Old English. The left side of the Buddhist yin and yang symbol represents darkness. The German word linkisch means left, but can also be translated as awkward, clumsy, or socially inferior. Likewise, mancino means both left and dishonest in the Italian language. In a similar vein, the Latin word ‘sinister’ initially meant left, but eventually changed to mean evil or unlucky. The Twins, being one of the most etymologically aware teams in Major League Baseball, have done their best to adhere to these principles, and indeed, the left side (3B, SS, LF) has been by far the weakest link in the Twins offense in the 2007 season.

Here are the Twins who have appeared in at least 10 games at one of the positions named above, and their stats in those games. (All stats accurate through Monday 6/25)

Third Base:

Player	G	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Cirillo	10	39	13	2	1	1	2	1	.371	.405	.571
Punto	54	224	48	7	2	1	25	32	.244	.329	.315
-----
		263	61	9	3	2	27	33	.263	.340	.353
AL 3B		263	62	13	1	8	23	46	.264	.335	.436

Cirillo has been doing very well when he has been in as Punto’s replacement at third base. His numbers bring the Twins 3B up to league average in BA and OBP, but Punto’s numbers lag behind in two of the three rate categories (on base % being the exception), and as a whole the largest discrepancy is in slugging percentage, but that isn’t much of a surprise. Even in Punto’s breakout 2006 season, his SLG was at .373, still well below third basemen league wide.

The bad news is that, after a bit of rebound in May (.364 OBP with a .639 OPS overall), Punto has struggled mightily in June (.175/.268/.254, .522 OPS) doing very little to improve the standing of the left side in the Twins lineup.

Shortstop:

Player	G	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Bartlett	63	236	52	8	0	1	23	27	.250	.335	.303
Punto	10	37	3	1	0	0	5	6	.094	.216	.125
-----
		273	55	9	0	1	28	32	.229	.319	.279
AL AVG		273	67	13	1	5	19	39	.271	.326	.392

Again, there is a noticeable lack of power from this position as Bartlett and Punto have managed to slug .113 points less than American League shortstops as a whole. The on base percentage is very close to average, and Bartlett’s is a little above.

I’m a Bartlett fan, so I feel duty-bound to point out that his average has come up each month to the point where he has hit .270/.338/.333 thus far in June. Although the power numbers still aren’t there for Jason, he’s getting on base at an above average clip compared to other AL shortstops.

Left Field:

Player	G	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Ford	18	69	15	3	0	1	4	9	.238	.304	.333
Kubel	43	164	38	8	0	5	8	27	.248	.288	.399
Tyner	10	33	8	2	0	0	2	2	.258	.303	.323
-----
		266	61	13	0	6	14	38	.247	.294	.372
AL AVG		266	63	13	2	6	22	43	.264	.328	.407

Finally, we see some league average power! Well, almost. This position looks the bleakest of three at first glance as the Twins threesome of Ford, Kubel, and Tyner combined to hit .017 points below AL left-fielders in BA, get on base at a rate that’s .034 points below and slug .035 points worse. Kubel has taken over the lion’s share of the playing time and, unsurprisingly, he has shown the most power of these three, although saying anyone has more power than Ford and Tyner isn’t too much of a statement.

Kubel also got off to a slow start, but has seen his numbers improve (SLG - .348 in April, .366 in May, and .500 in June). Kubel’s .814 OPS in June is actually higher than average (.735) for an AL left-fielder, and he probably represents the Twins best chance to put up above average offense from one of these three positions going forward.

To sum everything up, the AL average for these three positions are .266/.337/.411 while the Twins are getting .245/.316/.334 from these six players for an OPS that is almost a full .100 points below league average. Kubel is the only player mentioned here who has shown some signs of power, and he has started to come on as the season has progressed. I didn’t include Cirillo in that sentence, because I don’t think anybody is convinced that Cirillo could continue to slug .571 with meaningful playing time. As far as on-base percentage goes, Bartlett and Punto are the highest in this group, but neither has an OBP above .340, and neither has any power to speak of. And that’s the main story here, the left side of the Twins so far this season has been populated with players who are serviceable at times as far as getting on base, but the power outage from these positions is what has frustrated most Twins fans.

TWIT: A Different Drummer

Weekly Roundup

The Twins did things a little differently this week, finding a way to take two road series from two solid National League opponents. Sure, they ran into Jorge Sosa and Josh Johnson at the right times, and nobody expects too many more one strikeout shutouts. Nonetheless, it is exceedingly difficult to trash a team that outscored its opponents 38-20 over the course of the week, especially away from a home stadium that typically serves as one of its chief advantages. The 4-2 road record for the week brought the Twins to 18-17 on the road, tied with Oakland for third best in the American league behind only Anaheim and Boston. To me, the most exciting development of the week is the collection of three wins by four or more runs. Remember, close games can swing on small bounces or luck, but one mark of a really good team is the ability to win blowouts. Minnesota can survive some close games with a solid bullpen pulling them through difficult, high-leverage situations, but giving those pitchers a chance to breathe every so often while carving out a relief role for Ramon Ortiz has to be a good thing. Considering that they only carded two wins of 4+ wins through the rest of the month, scoring enough runs to cobble together some easy wins is actually a bit out of character.

I have spent a goodly amount of effort complaining about the Twins’ lack of power hitting. At first blush, this week looks scarcely different. Heading into Sunday’s season finale with Florida, Torii Hunter had managed the team’s only homerun of the week. On the other hand, once Joe Mauer teed off for his second homerun of the day Sunday, ten different players had combined for a total of 22 extra base hits. Averaging three doubles per game will compensate for quite a few missing homeruns, even when the team’s only legitimate power hitter may be bleeding internally. Finally, with all of the problems the Twins have had finding a DH who can pass as an average hitter, maybe they should consider giving Johan Santana a shot at swinging at some right handed pitching on his off days. In his two starts this week, Johan went 2-7 with a double, a triple, a walk, an RBI, and two runs scored. I do not sincerely want Santana batting every day, but anyone who has watched him hit knows that he is the sort of unique baseball talent who possesses the physical tools and the coordination to do everything well. Just like Rick Ankiel, with developmental time, I am convinced that he could be a solid big league batter.

Biggest Success

Joe Mauer started hitting again, which is a good thing. Two homeruns in Sunday’s game help to confirm that the .333/.448/.500 week was right back on his natural level. Giving up one earned run in 15 innings, tallying two wins, and sticking the inane “slump” chatter in idiot sporstwriters’ ears puts Johan Santana on the short list, as well. But since this list goes to the player of the week, I will choose to recognize someone who needed a good week after a terrible season so far.

Jeff Cirillo began the season injured, struggled through an inability to hit for any power, and could not get a regular job, even with Nick Punto hovering around a .220 batting average. In the last week, however, Cirillo has knocked the leather off of the ball, going 12-20 from last Sunday through Saturday. An 0-5 game with a strikeout to close out the week does little to temper my enthusiasm for a .600/.619/.750 week, right when the team needed it most. Consider this: the Twins 12^th out of 14 in the American league in homeruns, mashing 55 to beat out Baltimore and Kansas City (53 and 52, respectively). The league leader, Texas, has 93 bombs, and five teams have managed at least 86. Even without the DH, 14 of the 16 National League teams have gone yard more times than the Twins. Of the four teams with less total homeruns, the team leaders have 10 (Melvin Mora), 13 (John Buck), 10 (Jeff Kent), and 12 (Ryan Zimmerman). Factoring in Justin Morneau’s 20 bombs, it is clear that the Twins are extremely reliant on a singular power source. Without him in the lineup, having a reserve get hot enough to slug .750 for a week is extremely fortunate.

Biggest Disappointment

Anyone who has watched the Twins for the last few weeks has noticed this trend, but I’m not sure anyone is willing to talk about it, maybe as some sort of perverse jinx: something is clearly wrong with Juan Rincon. He earns biggest disappointment status for the week by giving up 8 runs (7 earned) on 3 homers and 9 total hits in only three innings. With four consecutive seasons of at least 74 innings pitched, it is no surprise that Rincon is showing some natural wear, particularly considering the high-leverage situations he has endured for the last two years. His strikeout rate peaked in 2004 and has dropped considerably each year since, hinting at the sort of trouble he has had this year. Still, it takes more than a tiny change for a pitcher’s ERA to jump two full runs after three stables years, or for him to give up more homeruns in a week than he gave up in either of the two previous seasons. Something is up with Rincon. Just like Jesse Crain showed some seriously diminished skills before discovering a more serious shoulder problem, I think now would be a good time to shut down Rincon for a precautionary DL stint. Before the season, I campaigned for the Twins to sell high on Rincon, shopping him for 3B or OF help while other teams might still see him as a premier setup man. Now, we’re left with a best case scenario of him suffering some sort of minor shoulder injury that rest can save. With the rest of the bullpen finding its way back to health, as well as the unlikely ascension of Matt Guerrier, now is the time to be cautious.

On the Horizon

The quirks of baseball’s schedule seem so unnecessary sometimes. For instance, I will never understand why MLB builds a wall between New York and Boston for the season’s doldrums months. Similarly, I found it odd that the Twins entered their series with Florida having played three more games than Minnesota. Those extra off days start to catch up with the Twins this week, as they will go straight home from Florida to the Dome for four with the Blue Jays, followed immediately by a three game road set in Detroit, four in New York, and four in Chicago. Including the double-header against the White Sox, the Twins will enter the All-Star Break having played 18 games in 17 days. If ever there was a time for the starting rotation to excel, now is that time.

Normally, I would say that missing Dustin McGowan is a bit of misfortune. Considering that he pitched 8+ innings of a no-hitter on Sunday, and running into Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett in the same series does not seem like such a bad thing. Those two will start the bookend games of the Toronto series, and Shawn Marcum (2.45 ERA as a starter) and the struggling Josh Towers will start the middle games. Twins fans know enough about the Tigers rotation by now, but the junk-balling, crafty lefty will be the recently healthy Kenny Rogers instead of the departed Mike Maroth.

The Big Picture

Once again, the Twins have to find a way to fend off New York and Oakland, while passing either Detroit or Cleveland within their division if they want a shot at the playoffs. Pretenders Toronto and Seattle could remain in the hunt with a few good breaks or trade deadline additions, but I do not believe either has what it takes to win the 90+ games the Wild Card winner will probably win. The Twins will take their shot against a few of these teams over the next few weeks with resurgent Toronto next on the plate, followed by the suddenly division-leading Tigers. The Yankees have cooled after a red-hot tear, and the Twins will have their own opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the Bombers with that four game set next week. And even though Chicago has struggled, a four game roadie against a big-time rival is never a sure thing. Altogether, the next two weeks will tell an awful lot about the team’s chances of contending for a playoff spot after the All-Star Break.

Recap 6/19/2007 Twins 9-Mets 0

A fantastic, albeit unusual game from staff ace Johan Santana paired with four Mets erros led the way for Twins to walk away with a big win in game two of their three game set with the NL East leaders.

Santana pitched a complete game shutout, the second of the month for the Twins, the other being Carlos Silva's game against the Braves. The oddity in the game wasn't in Johan's dominance, thats obviously par for the course, the oddity was in the fact that Johan struck out only 1 batter, that being Paul Lo Duca for the second out in the 9th inning. Behind him, Santana received solid defense, especially from Jason Bartlett who snared a few hard hit balls, helping to keep the Mets off the board. At the end of the night Santana finished with just four hits allowed and no walks. While it wasn't typical, I for one am thrilled. Santana had been having trouble all season with getting into many deep counts and often failing to work deep into games, hopefully this game will show a reversing of that trend. As we're now into mid-June, its certainly time that Santana begins to dominate as he always does. If he can begin to find a happy medium between his pitch counts and strikeouts he could have his best season yet.

The bats were solid tonight if unspectacular as the Twins managed 13 hits, but just three extra base hits, all doubles. After being held to four singles last night, the Twins clearly find themselves in yet another small ball rut. While the Twins did score nine runs, clearly one must wonder how many fewer it would've been had the team not received the aid of four errors from the Mets.

The Good

- Johan Santana: 9IP, 4H, oBB, oK, 0R. Nothing more to say.
- Jeff Cirillo: 3-5, one double, one run, one RBI. Tonight brings his average up to .253. Unspectacular indeed but if he can continue to hit, it may force the Twins to consider making Cirillo a regular fixture at 3B.
- Jason Bartlett: Went 2-5 raising his average to .247 and scored a run while making a few solid plays on defense in support of Johan's gem.
- Justin Morneau: No fireworks tonight but a solid 2-5 with a pair of singles bring his average up to .279 after a recent dip.
- Joe Mauer: a 2-4 performance with a double, a walk, two runs and and RBI hopefully signals the end of his "drought."

The Bad

- Luis Castillo: Another 0-fer has Luis 0-21 over the past 4 games and his average down to .306. This of course closely following the heels of Torii calling him "twofer," for two hits a game.

TWIT: Acceptable Outcome

Weekly Roundup

Six games against two winning teams, all of them at home. In that situation, I feel like one could make the case for 4-2 being the low and high-end outcome for the week. As it went down, the week created about as many mixed feelings as possible, with the Twins cresting early on during their pitching-rich sweep of Atlanta, then tumbling to a lucky win after a blown lead to prevent a sweep on Sunday against the Brewers. After getting wrecked 11-3 in the series opener on Friday, the weekly run differential ended up slightly positive, at 31-30 in the Twins favor. Setting aside the Friday and Sunday pitching meltdowns, the Twins allowed only 10 runs in four games. Those games do count, however, and the Twins were lucky to come out of them 1-1, largely thanks to Justin Morneau’s big day and the belated return of Joe Mauer’s bat.

Last week, I described the difficulty of winning with so much of a drag on the offense coming from the players formerly known as piranhas. In several of the games this week, it became abundantly clear that pitchers have changed their approaches against these hitters and no longer care if they miss with a pitch in the strike zone. The complete lack of power is preventing players like Punto and Castillo from taking advantage of a disciplined approach at the plate, and allowing pitchers to remain economical with their counts. Castillo, for instance, is currently drawing a walk in 6.2% of his plate appearances, down from 8.6% last year and 10.3% for his career. Why would Castillo be losing half of his walks this late in his career, when players tend to start picking up a few more walks? I suspect it has to do with the fact that pitchers tend to face four or five batters in a row in the Twins lineup who cannot really do any damage, even on a mistake pitch. If the lineup ends with Redmond, Tyner, Cirillo, Bartlett, then starts over again with Castillo- or includes Punto somewhere within that stretch- the likelihood of any of the hitters driving the ball is extremely low. As a result, there is almost no disincentive for a pitcher to throw right down the middle to save pitches, because extra base hits will not serve as punishment. On the other hand, Nick Punto, who has spent a good deal of time in the #2 hole, is walking more frequently than usual, possibly because he has a real hitter behind him. Putting Mauer after Castillo may help the top of the order somewhat, although the early returns have been unimpressive.

Biggest Success

Torii Hunter had a tremendous week, with 13 total bases and six runs batted in. Instead of picking him again and discussing the same issues that have been in play all year, I am going to give a sort of season achievement award to Pat Neshek, easily one of the easiest Twins to love. Neshek had an unsurprisingly excellent week, pitching four innings over three appearances, striking out four, walking one, and yielding one hit. Neshek has been an absolute rock all year, posting a ratio of 38 strikeouts to 24 base runners over 32.7 innings. Two homeruns over 32 innings is not an alarming rate, although his style will never allow him to be much better- lefties will occasionally get a read on him very early on and absolutely tag a pitch. Neshek ranks 11^th in all of baseball in WXRL, a measure that combines a relief pitcher’s saved runs with the leverage of the situations in which he saved them. At 2.3 wins so far this season, Neshek is sniffing some pretty rare air, even without pitching in the team’s highest leverage situations. Without factoring in leverage, Neshek’s ranking catapults up to 8^th in all of baseball, ahead of far better known pitchers like Jonathan Papelbon and Billy Wagner, also having strong seasons. The .162 BABIP is not nearly sustainable, even with his quirkiness, but the fact that he ranks third on the staff in VORP (17.4) shows that he can fall quite a bit and remain extremely useful. While I was once concerned that Neshek’s delivery made him so susceptible to lefty slugging that he would never be a successful closer, I am no longer worried about the seemingly certain departure of Joe Nathan.

Biggest Disappointment

I already got into Luis Castillo’s problems, so I won’t beat his .296 OBP to death. I will also give a free pass to Joe Mauer, working his way back into the lineup with a sub .600 OPS. Instead, I am starting to get more concerned with the plight of Scott Baker, who has been consistently bad since his initial success. This week, Baker started sharply against the Brewers in the series opener, then fell apart in the fourth inning. He started the inning by giving up two singles, which is fine, and he even rebounded by striking out Bill Hall. From there, he hit Johnny Estrada to load the bases- a crucial mistake. Clearly rattled, he left a pitch up against Geoff Jenkins, who pulled the ball way out for a grand slam. Baker finished the inning, but compounded the problem by giving up a single, a walk, and a two run double in the fifth, never truly regaining his composure. The point of rehashing this bad memory is that it serves to illustrate how Baker has repeatedly followed misfortune with mistake after mistake. To be a successful starting pitcher, he is going to have to find a way to rebound from mistakes, maybe by challenging hitters a little more, maybe by going to his breaking ball earlier in counts. One way or another, the 7.33 ERA and the 2.0 HR rate are problems that need to be solved.

On the Horizon

It does not get any easier from here, as the Twins open the week by traveling to New York to continue their interleague tilt against the Mets. If it is any consolation, the Twins get to travel in the evening while the Mets have to play a Sunday night game on the road before returning to Shea. On the other hand, that road game is played in the Bronx, so the Twins gain very little in that respect. The Twins will see a hodge-podge of salvaged fly ball pitchers in New York, from John Maine to Jorge Sosa to Oliver Perez. The first two are coming off of week starts, but Perez pitched a well-publicized duel against Roger Clemens on Friday, which he won with 7+ shutout innings. After the New York series, the Twins will head down the coast to play the Marlins, a disappointing team that has lost three straight series. As the rotation works out, Carlos Silva will get two starts for the week, which could be worse considering his recent run of effectiveness.

The Big Picture

With Detroit and Cleveland fighting through their interleague season, the Twins have picked up a couple of games on the leaders, now within 5.5 games of the division and 4.5 games of the Wild Card. With the Yankees coming out of their slumber, it seems reasonable that there will be more of a challenge in the Wild Card race, but it remains clear that the Twins are going to have to find some more offense in order to get themselves seriously in the discussion. Adam Dunn seems like an outstanding solution to that problem, as he plays for a GM who has shown an undue affinity for Twins players in the past and loves dealing with his mentor, Terry Ryan. While Dunn’s remaining salary would probably balance out to an additional $5 million for the remainder of the season, making the postseason can be worth more than $20 million in revenue for a team, so his addition would only have to increase the playoff chances by 25%, which seems eminently possible. Even though the Twins will almost certainly not trade prospects for a big ticket strikeout slugger in his walk year, the consideration fits into the bit picture, and that’s exactly where I’m leaving it.

The Levale Speigner Report

Here are the lines over their last four starts of two starting pitchers who recently faced the Twins.

Starter 1: 14.1 IP, 23 R, 30 H, 8 SO, 7 BB, 14.44 ERA, .423 BAA, 1.045 OPS
Starter 2: 26.1 IP, 5 R, 17 H, 15 SO, 9 BB, 1.71 ERA, .177 BAA, .533 OPS

Now, here are the lines for those same two starters in their starts against the Twins.

Starter 1: 6 IP, 1 R, 2 H, BB, 3 SO
Starter 2: 7 IP, 6 R, 7 H, BB, 2 SO

Starter 1 is Levale Speigner, a rule 5 draft pick who had four extremely rocky starts before shutting down the Twins on Saturday. Starter 2 is John Lackey, who has been one of the better starting pitchers in the American League over the last two seasons (ERA+ 2005 - 122, 2006 - 123). Lackey has pitched very well thus far, but the Twins were able to get to him and avoid a sweep in Los Angeles last Wednesday. Anecdotally, this has seemed to be a pattern for the Twins this season. Whenever they face a struggling pitcher (probably young, especially left-handed) they seem to have enormous struggles putting up any kind of offense. I know it's easy to remember getting only 2 hits off of a pitcher like Speigner, but if Minnesota had knocked out 7 or 8 hits in five innings and put some runs on the board, the game would have been quickly forgotten. Do the Twins actually struggle more against below average pitchers? Or is this a case of selective memory making a problem seem worse than it actually is?

To investigate that question, I looked at the opposing starting pitchers in the 63 games the Twins have played so far this year (through Wed.). For each pitcher I sampled the five starts before their outing against the Twins to get as good of an idea as possible of how they were doing around the time of their outing. Early in the season obviously there wouldn't be five starts beforehand, so I used any starts before the Twins outing, then complemented with starts directly after the outing versus the Twins to get to five total starts. I calculated FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as well as the more conventional ERA statistic for the 5 starts. Then I calculated runs per nine innings and WHIP for the start against the Twins. (Note: Virgil Vazquez (Det.) only has one start on the season, and it came against the Twins. I have placed him in the highest FIP/ERA category when it came time to place him) The American League average for these four stats are FIP and ERA - 4.40, R/G - 4.71, WHIP - 1.39.

First, I split things up by pitchers who were above or below league average in their 5 surrounding starts.

Surrounding FIP	Avg. FIP	R/9 v. Twins	WHIP v. Twins
below 4.40	3.78	4.36	1.26
above 4.40	5.27	4.99	1.44
Surrounding ERA	Avg. ERA	R/9 v. Twins	WHIP v. Twins
below 4.40	3.11	4.44	1.33
above 4.40	6.36	4.96	1.40

That table seems to indicate that the Twins are pretty much following the expected trend, they're hitting the "worse" pitchers harder by both measures than the pitchers who had enjoyed more recent success. However, it is true that with both FIP and ERA, the runs produced by the Twins were above the levels previously observed in the more successful pitchers and below the levels of the less successful hurlers. Not quite the pronounced effect as my frustration would lead me to believe, but it's a start.

Breaking it down further:

Surrounding FIP	Starts	Avg. FIP	R/9 v. Twins	WHIP v. Twins
below 3.80	12	3.18	4.29	1.38
3.80 - 4.40	16	4.18	4.40	1.19
4.40 - 5.10	15	4.72	5.66	1.49
5.10 - 6.00	13	5.36	4.44	1.35
above 6.00	7	6.90	4.69	1.54

Again we see that the Twins outperform against the tougher pitchers while not hitting the struggling pitchers as hard as one might predict. Overall, FIP seems to be a better indicator of future success against the Twins than ERA (shown in the table below):

Surrounding ERA	Starts	Avg. ERA	R/9 v. Twins	WHIP v. Twins
below 3.00	14	2.39	5.38	1.48
3.00 - 4.40	16	3.76	3.71	1.21
4.40 - 5.25	10	4.84	3.44	1.24
5.25 - 6.50	10	5.74	6.54	1.61
above 6.50	13	8.77	5.20	1.39

The first thing that jumps out is that the Twins are killing pitchers with an ERA under 3.00, so that backs up one part of the hypothesis. Although, taking these numbers with those of the previous table, it may be that the pitchers with the low ERA who have benefited from fielding help (and thus have a higher FIP) may be regressing to the mean a bit and inflating the numbers in the first row of this table. Also, the pitchers with the highest ERA outperformed their previous track record against the Twins, so there may be something to the perception after all. Note that the WHIP for the 6.50+ ERA category is lower than that of the below 3.00 ERA. However, the average pitchers (ERA from 3.00-5.25) seem to give the Twins the most trouble.

Overall, it seems that the data backs up the idea that the Twins struggle more than they should against pitchers who haven't been having success. On the converse side, they don't seem to be struggling with the most successful pitchers. It's certainly an odd quirk, and I don't know if it would hold up over a larger sample size, but it's certainly interesting to see some numbers to back up my perception.

I'll try to keep the database up to date and check in periodically with updates throughout the year. So you've got that to look forward to.

TWIT: Harsh Realization

Weekly Roundup

Let’s face it, right now the Twins do not look anything like a playoff team. That’s not to say that they cannot reverse course and make a run in the second half like they did last year, but as the roster presently stands, the postseason does not seem like an attainable goal. On offense, there are four solid run producers, two at premium, up the middle positions (Mauer and Hunter), and two on the corners (Morneau and Cuddyer). These guys form a solid core for the middle of the order, albeit one that has not been intact for most of the season. For the team to succeed, the rest of the offense would have to be exceptionally strong defensively or very good at getting on base. Right now, the lame piranhas act imposed on Castillo, Punto, Tyner, and Bartlett supercedes their actual deficient abilities. Instead, that group has a less-than-stellar .338 OBP between the four of them, mostly due to the fact that Castillo is hitting an insane number of singles (59 in only 47 games). Take him and his slap-happy attitude out of the equation, and three lineup spots have a combined .323 OBP, which is not going to do the trick for three guys who have combined for 2 homeruns.

The offensive futility was on full display in a pathetic series loss to the hapless Washington Nationals pitching staff this weekend. Jason Kubel’s support for Hunter and Morneau helped total 5 runs, which was not nearly enough to compensate for Chief Silva’s terrible evening (seven ground balls and only one fly out! Seven earned to go with it, unfortunately). The next night, a quality start resulted in Johan Santana’s sixth loss of the young season, because Levale Speigner shut the offense down cold, dropping his ERA from 9.10 to 7.79 in the process. For what it’s worth, Castillo, Punto, Tyner and Bartlett went a combined 4-25 in these two games. Losing a series to a last place team is bad. Losing that series on the heels of a disappointing road trip in which the team was lucky to even win a game in Anaheim is even worse. We are now 60 games into the season, and Terry Ryan has to start noticing that something isn’t working.

Biggest Success

I have been hard on Jason Kubel for much of the year, largely because I have so badly wanted to see him succeed. Unlike the aforementioned piranhas, Kubel does not need to rely on ad campaigns to make his reputation. Before his gruesome knee injury, Kubel was one of the top corner outfield prospects in baseball, even flashing his exceptional bat control in a major league cameo at the end of the year. Since his return at the start of the 2006 season, he has struggled with inconsistency and persistent health issues- asking whether he would ever become the player he was once destined to be became a fair question. His talent is obviously still there, but the issue becomes whether his body will let him realize it.

For that reason, I will take success for Kubel in small doses. A .300/.300/.600 line might be aberrant, and it might be one of the worst possible/least sustainable routes to a .900 OPS, but production is production. Kubel contributed six hits, knocking in four and striking out only once in the last week. Even better, he hit two homeruns, showing the power that needs to develop for him to be a reliable offensive force. Although he has not produced much this year, there is hope for Kubel to be at least an average major leaguer, something that this offense needs, and something that Tyner cannot become.

Biggest Disappointment

Jason Miller had a 216.00 ERA for the week, forcing the less mathematically inclined fans to brush up on their place value skills. That all came in one bad outing in a lost cause, though, so the morning-after box score eyesore is as far as the offense extends. Clearly, the offense was more of a problem, and I will continue the piranha scapegoating theme in this section of the article. Giving the four fish a best-ball style benefit of the doubt, you can come up with a leading batting average of .269 (Castillo), a leading OBP of .313 (Tyner), and a leading SLG of .333 (Bartlett and Tyner). That sort of Nison Bartillo hybrid works out to a .646 OPS and 3 extra base hits all week. If 40% of a teams plate appearances go to players who are slightly better at the plate than pitchers, you don’t call that a bad week, you call it the 2007 St. Louis Cardinals. (Ba-dam ching!)

On the Horizon

Even though I am not in the mood to looking forward, it will likely get better from here. Losing five or six at home to the Braves and Brewers next week would be brutal, but the Twins will have lots of good 1991 karma going for the first series and already played extremely well against the Crew earlier in the season. Moreover, the Monday off day could not have come at a better time, with the entire team seemingly going through doldrums. Look for Joe Mauer to continue easing his way back into the lineup- he will not be an instant panacea for all that ails the offense, but he will be a positive contributor and the chaining effect of giving him or Redmond some DH at bats could force Tyner to the bench with his wet noodle. Against los Bravos, the Twins will miss John Smoltz, and will send Santana against the resurgent Tim Hudson on Thursday. Hudson has cooled quite a bit lately, with a 4.83 ERA in his last 10 starts, and at least 5 earned runs in four of his last five outings. His struggles meeting up with the Twins offense is a sort of impotent force versus incapable object dual where everything may collapse onto itself. Hopefully, the presence of Santana will be enough to make the difference. Altogether, even though the Braves are having a “good” season, and the Twins are struggling, Atlanta is only 3 games better than the Twins in a weaker division and league, so it should be an interesting match-up.

Last time we saw the Brewers, they were the toast of the town, riding high atop the miserable NL Central. Now, the Cardinals and Cubs are starting to show up in the “objects closer than they appear” mirror, and Milwaukee has won all of one series since last meeting up with the Twins. Their steady rotation has been a little shakier, and the Twins will definitely face weak link David Bush, so things are setting themselves up about as well as anyone could hope for the week. Personally, I am just excited that I get to see the Twins on my TBS basic cable for three games instead of mlb.tv’s incessant buffering.

The Big Picture

Now that I have all of that whining out of my system, I can give a more objective analysis of the team’s overall fortunes. I am very close to ending the “it’s only _____” mantra for the year, but it really is only June, and there is too much baseball to be played to be placing nails in the coffins of teams within single digits of the division leaders. Cleveland is a very tough team, and Detroit is showing some resilience. It is going to take genuine improvements to catch those frontrunners, and it may be possible using components on the current roster. First of all, Slowey and Baker need to settle into a rhythm of being league-average starters. Nobody expects either one of them to go Francisco Liriano on the league, but they are throwing too much BP right now. An occasional wasted pitch or a pitcher’s pitch on a 3-2 count may be appropriate. More importantly, the offense needs to get something out of the bottom of the order. With all of those outs in the bottom third, it is as if the Twins are playing 6 innings of baseball against the other team’s nine. Seriously, does anyone see the phrase, “due up: Tyner, Punto, Bartlett,” and think anything other than, “good time for a bathroom break?” For what it is worth, the Twins wanted Tyner as a 5^th outfielder, and he would be fine in that role. Punto is not a good third baseman, but there are not so many of those in the league as some might think, and the ones who were available were no great shakes. And Bartlett could be better than he is playing right now. The difference between a playable offense and a failing one really comes down to either Punto or Bartlett getting on base consistently (say a .360 OBP), and Kubel hitting enough to force Tyner to the bench. With those two developments and some health, I’m not so sure the Twins cannot start looking like a postseason possibility once again.