On Assignment: Brewers 6, Twins 5

As I lounged about this weekend, an urgent message suddenly appeared in my inbox from the headquarters of the Minnesota Sports Guys conglomerate. I was chosen to attend a Twins game this weekend at Miller Park. Despite the fact that Ramon Ortiz would be pitching, and that I would be wading into hostile territory with which I was not familiar (my first visit to Miller Park), I felt duty-bound to do my best. Following is my report. (Keep in mind, I am not a professional picture taker, I'm barely an amateur, so there's not much and it may not be high quality, but I'll try to fill in with witty commentary where appropriate)

Yep, that's the place. We (me and my wife) exited off the freeway and were pretty much right by the front gate, which we thought boded well. After another 20 minutes of driving we reached our parking spot and made the long trek back toward the field (which is essentially in the middle of an enormous parking lot).

Also, you may notice that the roof was closed. No outdoor baseball for us.

We found our seats pretty easily (after procuring some cheesy fries in a helmet). This was the view from section 430 (the MNSG budget apparently isn't all that large). The place was pretty well packed with a reasonable representation of Twins fans. And I should point out that the Brewers fans that I met were very well behaved, before and after the game (I probably would have ranted about them if they weren't, so I have to give them credit).

In the above picture, the Brewers had just walked Jason Bartlett to get to Ramon Ortiz in the big 4-run fourth.

At this point my wife pointed out that TC, the Twins mascot, was in attendance, hanging out with Bernie Brewer on the infamous slide. (Emphasis mine, there were no giant purple arrows at the game). Shortly after this half inning finished, Bernie and TC disappeared from the slide and TC wasn't seen again. In an interesting parallel, the Brewers outscored the Twins 6 to 1 for the remainder of the game. Perhaps Bernie took matters into his own hands? I know the Twins policy is not to negotiate for hostages, but it had to be weighing on their minds.

Ramon Ortiz plots his next big inning (alternatively, he frets about the plight of TC).

It wouldn't be Milwaukee without a Sausage Race. Here they come, around the homeplate area, I had the bratwurst in a friendly wager with my wife (that's him in the green hat at the back of the pack. grrrrrrr)

It was Sunday, so it was a relay (as anyone who's witnessed a sausage race knows). The "little weenies" ran the last leg and the bratwurst made a valiant comeback to finish second. Unfortunately the wife's pick, the polish, won easily, so I lost that bet (and no, I won't tell you what the wager was, it's not important).

I had a picture of Ramon Ortiz, and here's a picture of Pat Neshek. I didn't get a picture of Dennys Reyes because I was covering my eyes in horror the whole time he was on the field. He trotted in from the bullpen and I was desperately trying to convince myself that Juan Rincon had become a lefty. But Dennys laughed at my pitiful attempts to deny him as he coughed up a run to give the Brewers the lead.

Neshek was awesome, after getting two outs on two pitches in the 7th, my wife predicted three strikeouts on 9 pitches in the 8th. She was pretty close, Neshek got two strikeouts and a pop-up on 10 pitches. Between this and the polish sausage thing (plus she got the attendance game right, too) I was getting a little freaked out.

Damn.

I had a good time, I always enjoy a baseball game, and this one was close enough to be entertaining throughout. I got to give Cuddyer a standing ovation for his home run, and I got to curse the offense for failing to capitalize on a leadoff double in a tie game. The whole range of emotions in one afternoon. I really felt the Twins should have pulled this one out, but I can be content with 2 of 3 on the road in a series. That's it from me, I'm off to sharpen my photojournalism skills. Thanks for reading!

PS - Corey, who do I contact about reimbursement for the bratwurst and cheese curds?

This Week in Twins: The Start of Something New

Welcome to the debut edition of "This Week in Twins," or TWIT. I'm your author, Andrew Berg, and from this point forward, you can anticipate a weekly wrap-up of where the Twins have been and where they are going. Also, I will do my best to keep week-t0-week developments in the context of the bigger picture and how they implicate Minnesota's chances of the postseason. If another big story intrudes during the year, I will make room to facilitate its inclusion. For now, expect a broad review with something of an analytic bent. If you enjoy the reading, don't be afraid to check out my own site, www.MinnesotaBaseballCentral.blogspot.com, or my other work at Write On Sports.

Weekly Roundup

The Twins endured an up-and-down road trip, sweeping the usually feisty Mariners in Seattle, then succumbing to the Royals twice over the weekend. While it is hard to complain about a 4-2 record, the Twins have yet to take a bit out of the meat of the schedule. Even though Kansas City is not the pushover they have been the last few years, there is no excuse for managing one run against Jorge De La Rosa.

Before the disappointment came the glee of pounding the Mariners, averaging 7.3 runs per game in the series, even if some of that good fortune came at the expense of Felix Hernandez’s royal sinews. Mike Cuddyer led the hit parade, piling up 8 total bases and five runs batted in through the series. The starting pitching continued to impress, as well, with Ortiz, Silva, and Santana turning in a trifecta of quality starts. These early season trips to Safeco have become something of a tradition in the last several years, and they usually give the Twins fits- despite the disparity in the quality of the two teams over the last five years, the Twins are only 8-8 at Safeco since 2002. In that light, a series sweep looks even more appealing.

While the Twins sparkled against the M’s, all that glitters is certainly not gold. The same team that looked so capable mid-week looked inept throughout dropping two of three to a team that has come to know a thing or two about ineptitude. Game one saw another seven runs scored, including another Cuddyer homerun and three hits from the typically scorching Joe Mauer. The run prevention side of the equation left us wanting, though, as Sidney Ponson kept the question open as to whether his ERA or his waistline would end the year further above league average. I would say Ponson is some sort of pathetic example of déjà vu from 2006, but nobody on that roster- not even Tony Batista- was as remarkably hopeless as Ponson. If he remains this out of shape, he may challenge Patrick Ewing’s record of “sweatiest athlete in the first five minutes of a sporting event.” Sixteen hits and four shutout innings of relief helped to pick up Boof Bonser in Saturday’s 7-5 win, making it the weekend’s biggest highlight. The week ended on a sour note nonetheless, as poor weather kept the team from hitting any batting practice. And keeping in mind the adage that “how you practice is how you play in the game,” it should be no surprise that the Twins did not hit in the game either. Jorge De La Rosa cast an eight inning spell on the entire lineup, allowing only another RBI double from Cuddyer. Buddy Bell wisely switched to Joakim Soria for the ninth, putting De La Rosa back in his carriage before he turned back into a pumpkin. The game was something of a microcosm for what has gone wrong for the Twins outside of the pitching staff- although Cuddyer and Mauer each played well, the rest of the lineup mustered only a few singles, and Bartlett committed his Jeter-esque 6^th error of the young season. Now I don’t want to tempt fate by suggesting that he needs more AAA seasoning, but if he keeps fielding this poorly, the AL Gold Glove voters might start thinking of him as serious competition for Jeter’s throne.

Biggest Surprise

Even though it seems counterintuitive to believe that a lifelong underachiever could turn around his career after spending one month with a new pitching coach (his fourth), I keep hoping against hope that Ramon Ortiz is for real. He has been the team’s most valuable pitcher in terms of Value Over Replacement Player, and he has done it by pulling off his best Carlos Silva impression. No, not that Carlos Silva. I’m talking about the one who kept the ball over the plate constantly, but with enough downward movement to prevent extra base hits. Sure enough, Ortiz has given up some singles- a respectable, but not earth-shattering, 6.6 per nine- but walks and homeruns are tougher to come by. His two quality starts this week only resulted in one victory, although the 25-12 groundball-flyball ratio hints at the potential for continued success. Let me be clear: I don’t make a policy out of banking on pitchers with a 3.3 K/9 rate; he’s demanding entirely too much from his defense. With a little improvement, however, the rest of the peripherals are there to keep up a very solid season, munching innings just as Terry Ryan had hoped.

Biggest Disappointment

Maybe it is not fair to call it a disappointment if everyone could see it coming. In any case, Nick Punto’s .204/.283/.315 line could not cut it in the middle infield, and it certainly does not cut it at the hot corner. I know he has not been entirely healthy this year, and I know that he actually managed 5 hits (2 XBHs) over the weekend. Still, this piranha has a long way to go before he convinces me that he is more solution than problem. The history books are littered with guys who could draw a walk now and then with good pitch recognition skills. Without the ability to punish mistakes, though, these same batters eventually stopped walking as pitchers realized they could throw the ball over the plate without repercussions. With an anemic .342 career SLG, Punto does not profile as a Mark Teahen type who eventually learns to start pulling the ball. If he can use his speed and ability to make contact to squeak out a few hits or turn some singles into doubles here and there, he could make himself a solid contributor as an infield super-sub. As a full-time player, though, he is all disappointment.

On the Horizon

The Twins have a full slate this week, welcoming Cleveland and Kansas City to the Dome for two apiece, then traveling to Detroit for three over the weekend to rekindle a matchup that generated some very entertaining games a year ago. Cleveland has looked good, if a little disjointed. That fault can be easily forgiven considering their odd schedule so far. The Twins will likely see the back end of Cleveland’s rotation, with Jeremy Sowers matching up against Silva on Monday, and Fausto Carmona trying to prevent Santana from starting a new Dome winning streak on Tuesday. The Twins could feast on this pair of starters with 5+ ERAs, or they could make them into this week’s Jorge De La Rosa. Only time will tell. Against the Royals, the Twins will get a repeat look at Odalis Perez and Zack Greinke. All four starters saw the opponent over the weekend, so there should be plenty of runs scored.

The Big Picture

Nobody ought to complain about first place in the division. Be wary, though, as the competition has not been terribly stiff and the rest of the division has not found any consistency so far. The Twins are already a win and a half above their run differential, and two and a half wins above their third order projections (based on how many runs they should have scored and prevented, derived from individual performance). According to those numbers, they’re only a .500 team so far, not so hot after facing a bunch of teams who figure to occupy fourth or fifth place in the standings by year’s end. The early returns on the playoff odds report from Baseball Prospectus place the Twins as roughly an even-money bet to make the postseason. Since I saw them as something less than a playoff team before the season began, I have no complaints.

Recap 4/22/2007 Twins 1, Royals3

MLB.com Recaps and boxscore

Coming into tonights contest between the Twins and Royals my main concern, as I stated towards the end of last nights recap, was for a letdown from Ramon Ortiz. To a certain extent I was right, as he probably had his worst outing of the season, though seven innings and three runs is certainly far from bad. The one thing I didn't anticipate was such a precipitous decline in production from an offense which had been racking up hits the last two evenings like they were going out of style. However that is precisely what Twins Nation received.

Ramon Ortiz took the hill against a team that had just beaten up on Sidney Ponson, which many predicted, and then on Boof Bonser, which few predicted. Looking ahead I thought conditions were ripe for a return to form from Ortiz, what with having pitched so well of late, a return to normal was entirely too predictable. That was not the case though as Ramon delivered another seven sterling innings, allowing just three runs to an offense that has thus far been solid against the Twins, roughing up not only the starters, but to some degree the vaunted bullpen as well.

Once again I didn't get to see the game, I haven't seen a a single game of this series due to the sports gal's demanding softball schedule, and I must admit, I'm going through a serious bout of withdrawal. From what I heard on the car radio between rain delays the Twins bats were stifled by the always imposing sounding, though never dominating Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa, who will from here on be referred to as DLR obviously had it going as he held the Twins to only five hits, and only one extra base hit, a double off the bat of Michael Cuddyer which plated Batting Champ for the Twins lone run in the sixth. DLR, a 26 year-old from Mexico came into tonight with some incredible career numbers, though for all the wrong reasons. A reliever for most of his career, DLR has pitched a total of 170 2/3 Major League Innings, also known as almost a full season for a starter. In those innings he's managed to post a career WHIP of 1.73, (184 hits, 11 walks (yeah that's right, 111 walks in ~171 innings...)) all to the tune of a 5.43 career ERA. And while he's been much better this year, going 1-1 and registering a 3.04 ERA (all coming into tonights game)

On the other hand you could probably say much of the same things for Ramon Ortiz, a career
4.80 pitcher who as of today is sporting a 2.48 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP(no thats not a typo) . As I stated earlier, this was probably Ramon's worst start of the year, however he still allowed only three runs and only seven hits in as many innings while striking out four and walking none. Along with dishing out another good outing, Ortiz also surely delivered the quote of the game which I stole from MLB.com's recap, "If I pitch like that all year, we'll win more games than we'll lose." Brilliantly well stated Mr. Ortiz.

Usually I finish by mentioning how the Twins offense did, but seeing as how they scored just one run and had only five hits, I'll say nothing, since thats pretty much what happened. I would however like to hear about what others thought of the Twins hitters, especially in terms of patience, and plate approach, etc... Generally I'm of the opinion that the Twins are most effective when they're hitters aren't hacking away early, a common bit of baseball acumen, but certainly one which I find far too often to be applicable to a team of veterans that should know better. My guess is that the Twins we're they're own biggest enemy, not DLR, swinging early, and allowing him to pitch until the eighth.

Positives

- Ramon Ortiz baby, Cy Young, here he comes. Seriously though, thats four pretty great starts from a guy who most people (coming into spring training) thought would be lighting it up for Rochester (or maybe Tampa Bay (aren't they the same thing?)) by now.

- Batting Champ, for using his arm to gun down two more runners today.

Negatives

- Everyone in the batting order who's last name does not rhyme with 'power'. I suppose Cuddy gets a pass too for drawing the only walk against a guy who's made a career of allowing people the free pass to first. Honestly, thats pathetic.

- Ron Gardenhire. Seriously, did he miss the part of the pre-game speech where he tells the guys the pitcher they're about to face has allowed walks at a rate of 5.85 per 9 innings? Did that just conveniently slip by? Did he miss the, "make sure to work the count so we can spend as much time pounding the worst bullpen in baseball," part? Sure, DLR's final strikes-thrown rating was pretty good at 68%, but I'm curious how many of those were Twins hitters flailing away at pitches out of the zone. My guess is a lot. I'm hoping someone who saw the game will confirm this, because I'm almost positive its true.

- MVP, who has been anything but so far this year, failing with astounding consistency with guys in scoring position. Today's line? 0-4 with two strikeouts (including a bases loaded, one out job) and four left on base. I may be the only person who's hating on him hard right now, but he's really been bad. So far this season he's hitting .208 with runners in scoring position. However, as a leadoff hitter he's batting .412. Looks like he and Luis Castillo have decided to swap roles. Castillo is hitting .400 with runners in scoring position.

Another point of interest with Morneau would be that it seems he's trying harder than ever to hit homeruns, and for the most part, failing. For his career, Morneau has a .94 GB/FB ratio, this season that ratio has dipped to .79. I can't be certain if it's a mechanical problem or a mental one, but its clear that he's probably not bringing the bat through the middle on a level plane, which is probably the reason I've been hearing, "Morneau hits a harmless pop fly just behind shortstop," so often this season. Also, has anyone else noticed that he's no longer hitting the ball consistently to left field as he did last season and that teams have once again begun to play him hard to pull? According to Inside Edge from ESPN, 26% of his balls in play have been to left, compared to 40% to right. He also has a HUGE hole up and in where he consistently chases and fails to put ball in play. Just to pile on, he's also averaging a career low 3.26 P/PA. If anything good can be taken from all of this, it'll be that it'll give T.R. some leverage in contact negotiations, presuming these trends continue throughout the year. Of course that would also mean the twins probably won't be making the playoffs again, but I didn't/don't expect them to anyways.

Looking Ahead

Tomorrow the Twins have to face a real team in the Cleveland Indians and yet another left hander in Jeremy Sowers, regretfully to say, this lefty has talent. So far this season the Twins have hit lefties at a .240 clip and righties at a .304 rate. The good news? We send Cy Young contender Carlos Silva to the mound to face a team who he's allowed a 4.87 ERA and .324 BAA against to over the past three seasons. Oh, hold on, thats not good news? Well, 11-8, here we come!