Inconsistent Offense?

The Twins just completed a series in which they scored five runs in three games while being swept by the Blue Jays. In my searches for the Series Preview in Blog, I came across this article about the inconsistency of the Jays offense in comparison to some other teams. The Twins were one of the more inconsistent offenses mentioned in the study. The author doesn't delve into cause and effect with his numbers (except for a rough characterization of teams as 'power' or 'speed' reliant offenses), but the short answer has little to do with a reliance on speed in the Twins offense. Rather the Twins offense goes mostly as the 3-6 hitters go. Unfortunately those hitters are the least consistently productive of the Twins regular lineup.

Player	OPS	St. Dev.	High	Low
Mike Redmond	.680	.224	1.173	.343
Jason Tyner	.649	.221	1.026	.266
Jeff Cirillo	.741	.202	1.019	.449
Michael Cuddyer	.923	.184	1.156	.508
Joe Mauer	.849	.182	1.249	.547
Torii Hunter	.901	.174	1.180	.623
Justin Morneau	.949	.160	1.260	.689
Luis Castillo	.702	.156	.901	.372
Jason Bartlett	.666	.155	.867	.247
Nick Punto	.594	.137	.816	.370
Jason Kubel	.709	.120	.919	.512

I looked at the eleven Twins players that have the most plate appearances so far this season. For each player, I divided the 100 games of the 2007 season into 19 ten-game sections (i.e. 1-10, 6-15, 11-20, etc.), calculated the OPS for each section, and then calculated the standard deviation of that data set. I threw out any of those sections where the player had less than 15 plate appearances, which gave the results in the table at the left.

The most inconsistent performers (Tyner, Redmond, Cirillo) are those that don't play as often. The next rung on the inconsistency ladder belongs to Minnesota's "big 4"; Cuddyer, Mauer, Hunter, Morneau. The most consistent are the "little 4"; the regular players with OPS under .800 (Kubel, Bartlett, Punto, Castillo). The biggest surprise to me was Joe Mauer's numbers. It's hard to believe that Mauer is less consistent than Torii Hunter. And, in fact, if you eliminate just the 10 game stretch immediately after he came off the disabled list the standard deviation drops significantly. So I dropped the highest and lowest sections from each players data and recalculated the data.

Player	OPS	St. Dev.	Adjusted	High	Low
Jeff Cirillo	.741	.202	.175	1.019	.449
Jason Tyner	.649	.221	.164	1.026	.266
Mike Redmond	.680	.224	.163	1.173	.343
Torii Hunter	.901	.174	.156	1.180	.623
Michael Cuddyer	.923	.184	.154	1.156	.508
Justin Morneau	.949	.160	.136	1.260	.689
Luis Castillo	.702	.156	.128	.901	.372
Nick Punto	.594	.137	.122	.816	.370
Jason Bartlett	.666	.155	.117	.867	.247
Joe Mauer	.849	.182	.113	1.249	.547
Jason Kubel	.709	.120	.104	.919	.512

For the most part the trends remain the same. The bench players are the most inconsistent, probably due to the uneven amount of playing time they get during the season. Cuddyer, Hunter, and Morneau remain in the same position. They produce more overall, but their production is less consistent than others in the offense. The biggest movers in this adjustment are Joe Mauer and Jason Bartlett, who both suffered from one below average cross-section (Mauer coming off the DL, Bartlett's first 10 games of '07). Mauer is pretty remarkable. Not only is he able to produce at a high level, he's one of the most consistent hitters in the Twins lineup this season. The other players at the bottom of the table are all of the lighter hitting variety, consistently providing a lower level of offense.

Therein lies the problem with the Twins offense. The top and bottom of the order are consistently producing subpar offensive numbers (OPS of .594 to .709) so they rarely are able to pick up the slack when the middle of the order isn't at its top production. Unfortunately, it seems that the middle of the order this season has been the most unpredictable part of the offense, whether it's availability (Mauer spending significant time on the DL) or just production. If one or two (or sometimes three) of the "big 4" aren't producing, the offense almost completely evaporates. It's also interesting to note that the right-handed component of the "big 4" is the less consistent half. That might be a factor in the Twins struggles against left-handed pitching.

The inconsistency is not the fault of the middle of the order being more or less consistent than the rest of the lineup. In fact, I would predict that most of the high OPS hitters would see more variance than lighter-hitting players. Rather, it is an offense that is constructed to rely on a few people in the lineup to produce the majority of the runs, and when the remainder of the lineup doesn't heat up to cover the downswings of the big bats, the offense is doomed to sputter.

A Look Back: Recent Twins Draft History, Part I

With the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft on the horizon, this is the first of two articles looking at the Twins' most recent drafts. This part looks at the first round picks of the last fifteen years and how they are faring (or have fared) in professional baseball. Next week I will look at the Twins minor leagues and how the draft has been used to stock the Twins system.

In the last 15 years, the Twins have drafted 22 players (including the supplemental first round). Of those 22, they have signed 20 of them (91%). They have drafted 9 pitchers, although recently there has been a larger focus at that position as five of the last eight first round picks have been pitchers. 4 outfielders and 3 catchers have also been drafted in the first round by the Twins.

Ten of these players have already made their major league debut with the Minnesota Twins, while eight more remain in the farm system awaiting their chance. That leaves two players (B. J. Garbe '99 and Ryan Mills '98) who never made it to the major league level after being drafted in the first round by the Twins. Incidentally, The Twins current roster (and disabled list) contains four of their first round picks (Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, and Perkins).

Of the ten players who have made it to the bigs, Matt Garza and Adam Johnson were the fastest, reaching the majors in their second season in the Twins organization. The average time from draft to debut was 3.8 years for those ten picks.

To satisfy all your curiosity, here are some words and numbers about each of the Twins first round draft picks in the last 15 years:

	2006 - Chris Parmelee - (20th overall - OF) currently with Beloit (A) Parmelee turned heads with his fast start last year. He hit 8 home runs in 45 games last year at the Rookie level before a late promotion to Beloit. Overall he hit .273/.369/.500 last year which resulted in his being listed as the #94 prospect in Baseball America's top 100 prospects of 2007. So far this year, he's hit .226/.305/.374 at Beloit with two home runs. Some eyebrows have been raised by his high strikeout total (38 SO in 115 AB) but he's only 19 years old, so he's still got plenty of time to develop. His mix of patience and power are the attributes that lead to the Twins selecting him in the first round.
	2005 - Matt Garza - (25th overall - P) currently with Rochester (AAA) - 1 ML season Garza's unbelievably fast rise through the farm system last year caught a lot of attention, and he was ranked #21 in Baseball America's top 100 prospects of 2007. He began last season with Fort Myers and pitched his way to promotions to New Britain and then Rochester, and finally, Minnesota. In nine starts with the Twins, Garza pitched 50 innings, allowing 32 earned runs (5.76 ERA) while striking out 6.8 per nine innings. He began the 2007 season at Rochester and is currently boasting a 3.86 ERA with 8.4 K/9 through his first nine starts. It's only a matter of time until Garza dons a Twins uniform again.
	2005 - Henry Sanchez - (39th overall - 1B) currently with Elizabethton (Rookie), 3rd minor league season Sanchez was drafted out of high school and spent some time at Beloit last year. That stint, combined with his time in rookie ball gives a career line of .211/.274/.351 coming into this year. Sanchez is currently recovering from an injury, and so I couldn't find any stats from this season. It doesn't seem like he's on the fast track right now, but only time will tell.
	2004 - Trevor Plouffe - (20th overall - SS) currently with New Britain (AA), 4th minor league season Drafted out of high school as the first of 5 first-round picks for the Twins in 2004, Plouffe has spent the last two seasons at A level before his promotion this year. In the previous three seasons he has hit .244/.321/.353. So far this season, Plouffe has hit .250/.306/.402 with the uptick in power due mostly to an increased number of doubles (11 2B out of 33 hits). Plouffe's defense has also been improved according to scouts, which adds to the overall optimistic picture for this prospect.
	2004 - Glen Perkins - (22nd overall - P) currently with Minnesota Twins, 2nd ML season After being drafted from the University of Minnesota, Perkins made his debut in the stretch run for the Twins last season and was called up early this season, where he stayed until a recent injury put him on the disabled list. In those two stints, Perkins has 16 appearances, all out of the bullpen, with an ERA of 3.38, a 1.19 WHIP, and 6.75 K/9. In the minors, Perkins moved quickly, never spending more than one year at any level. He started 60 games while posting an ERA of 3.36, a 1.24 WHIP, and 9.63 K/9
	2004 - Kyle Waldrop - (25th overall - P) currently with New Britain (AA), 4th minor league season Waldrop was recently promoted to New Britain after getting off to a good start this year. In eight starts, he averaged 5.5 IP, had an ERA of 2.86 while striking out 41 in 44 innings. His first start at AA also looked good, as Waldrop allowed one earned run in seven innings. Since signing with the Twins, he has spent a year at rookie ball, followed by two years split betwixt Beloit and Fort Myers at the A level. In his minor league career, Waldrop has an ERA of 3.83, a WHIP of 1.21, while maintaining a SO/BB ratio of 4 to 1 and striking out 6.3 batters per 9 innings.
	2004 - Matthew Fox - (35th overall - P) currently with Beloit (A), 3rd minor league season Originally drafted, but not signed, in 2001 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Fox attended the University of Central Florida before being drafted by the Twins. 2007 represents his first season above rookie level due to a injury to his labrum which took his 2005 season. He's only appeared in one game thus far this year as he spent time at extended spring training, but he did pitch a scoreless inning in that appearance.
	2004 - Jay Rainville - (39th overall - P) currently with Fort Myers (A), 3rd minor league season Jay Rainville was drafted out of high school and began with one season at the rookie level, followed by parts of a season with Beloit and Fort Myers. In those two seasons, his ERA was 3.06 and his WHIP was 1.20. He would miss the entire 2006 season with an arm injury before returning this year where he left off, at Fort Myers. Rainville has eight starts this season for the Miracle, he has a 3.22 ERA in those starts with a 1.27 WHIP while averaging 4.5 IP/start.
	2003 - Matt Moses - (21st overall - 3B) currently with Rochester (AAA), 5th minor league season The Twins drafted Moses out of high school, and he spent a little more than a season at each level through the Twins system hitting .261/.323/.402 over the last four seasons. This is his first year at AAA, and he's hitting .244/.264/.341. On a positive note Moses posted his highest home run total last season at New Britain (15, 31.6 AB/HR) which is a good sign for one of the Twins power hitting prospects.
	2002 - Denard Span - (20th overall - OF) currently with Rochester (AAA), 5th minor league season Span has long been tagged as Torii Hunter's successor in centerfield for the Twins. Due to Mr. Hunter, Span hasn't progressed to the majors as quickly as others on this list, but in his four previous seasons in the minors (none above AA), he has hit .288/.359/.346 while stealing 76 bases in about 1600 plate appearances. In his first season at AAA this year, Span is hitting .226/.282/.299 with 10 stolen bases.
	2001 - Joe Mauer - (1st pick overall - C) currently with Minnesota Twins, 4th ML season, .323/.403/.472 Mauer started the season with the Twins in 2004 after the departure of A. J. Pierzynski. Unfortunately, due to injury, he would only appear in 35 games that year. Since then, Mauer has become a hitting machine, he won the batting title last season and posted a career high average (.347) and OBP (.446). Last year, Mauer won numerous accolades, including the Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star selection, and he garnered enough votes to place 6th in the AL MVP race. Mauer is currently on the disabled list with a leg injury but prior to that was still hitting well (.353/.446/.480).
	2000 - Adam Johnson - (2nd overall - P) 2 major league seasons, 10.25 ERA, 2.05 WHIP Johson shot through the minor leagues, reaching the Majors after short stops at A, AA, and AAA in 2001. He would appear in seven games for the major league club including four starts, posting an 8.28 ERA and a 1.8 WHIP. After spending 2002 at AAA, Johnson made another brief appearance with the Twins in 2003, appearing in two games, pitching 1.1 innings and allowing eight runs. After another season in the minors, Johnson was released by Twins in 2005 and signed by the Oakland A's. After a couple of seasons in the Oakland farm system, Johnson is out of professional baseball.
	1999 - B. J. Garbe - (5th overall - OF) 6 minor league seasons Garbe was drafted out of high school by the Twins and spent two years each at the A and AA levels of the Twins organization. He hit .218/.298/.294 in those four seasons before he was traded in 2004 for Pat Borders. Garbe spent time in the Mariners and Marlins farm systems until 2006, but I couldn't find a current team for him this season.
	1998 - Ryan Mills - (6th overall - P) 7 minor league seasons Mills was originally drafted by the Yankees in the 13th round of the 1995 draft, but instead attended Arizona State University until the Twins drafted him in the first round. Mills would spend about two years at each level of the minors (as a starter at A and AA; and in the bullpen at AAA) but didn't excel at any of them, as he posted a record of 17-40 with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.73 while walking 5.9 batters per nine innings. After 2004, the Twins released Mills and he hasn't resurfaced anywhere else that I can find.
	1997 - Michael Cuddyer - (9th overall - SS/1B/2B/3B/OF) currently with Minnesota Twins, 7th ML season, .269/.341/.454 Cuddyer had his breakout year last year when he hit 41 doubles and 24 home runs with a .284/.362/.504 line. It's probably not coincidental that last season marked the first time Cuddyer played more than 95 games at any one position (142 games in right field). He made his debut in 2001, but spent significant time in the minors each of the next three seasons.
	1997 - Matt LeCroy - (50th overall - C) currently with Rochester (AAA) - 7 ML seasons The Mets drafted LeCroy initially in 1994, but he went to Clemson University instead for three seasons before the Twins drafted him. LeCroy made his debut with the Twins in 2000 and played six seasons with the Twins before he was granted free agency after the 2005 season. In those six seasons, LeCroy hit .275/.346/.460 with the Twins while averaging about 240 plate appearances per year. His best year was 2003 (coincidentally the year he got the most at-bats) when he hit 17 home runs while posting a line of .287/.342/.490. After a year in Washington, LeCroy returned to the Twins in the off-season as a free agent and is currently hitting .197/.256/.291 at AAA Rochester.
	1996 - Travis Lee - (2nd overall - 1B - did not sign) 9 year ML career, .256/.337/.408
	1995 - Mark Redman - (13th overall - P) currently with Atlanta Braves, 9th ML season Redman spent time with the Twins in three seasons from 1999 to 2001. However, the only consistent action he saw was in 2000, when he started 24 games and posted an ERA of 4.76, 7.0 K/9, and a 1.41 WHIP, which was good enough to place him 6th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Those numbers only differ from his career numbers in the frequency of strikeouts (5.5 career K/9, 4.75 ERA, 1.42 WHIP). He was traded to the Detroit Tigers at the deadline of the next year for Todd Jones. After leaving the Twins, Redman has been named an All-Star once ('06 with Kansas City) and won a World Series ('03 with Florida).
	1994 - Todd Walker - (8th overall - 2B) currently with Oakland Athletics, 12th ML season Walker made his debut with the Twins in 1996 and spent four seasons with the Twins, including a spectacular 1998 season where he posted career highs in BA (.316), OBP (.372) and OPS+ (119). In his Twins tenure, he hit .285/.341/.413 which corresponds with his career line of .289/.348/.435. He was traded to Colorado for another Todd, Todd Sears, in July of 2000.
	1993 - Torii Hunter - (20th overall - OF) currently with Minnesota Twins, 11th ML season, .271/.324/.469 Hunter has patrolled center field for the Twins for the better part of the last nine seasons. In that time, his best performance to date was the 2002 season when he hit .289/.334/.524, won a start in the All-Star game, and came in 6th in the AL MVP voting. This year Hunter is demolishing all those numbers hitting an astronomical .318/.353/.611 so far. Hunter has also won six Gold Gloves and has been widely regarded as one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game.
	1993 - Jason Varitek - (21st overall - C - did not sign) currently with Boston Red Sox, 11th ML season, .269/.349/.449 2-time All-Star ('03, '05), Silver Slugger (2005), World Series (2004)
	1992 - Dan Serafini - (26th overall - P) six major league seasons Serafini had a six year career in the major leagues starting with three seasons with the Twins from 1996 to 1998 before his contract was purchased by the Chicago Cubs. With the Twins Serafini appeared in 35 games and for a couple stretches filled in as a starter. He started 14 games, posting a 5.45 ERA while averaging 5.1 innings per start with a 1.57 WHIP and 4.7 K/9 in those games. Overall with the Twins, Serafini posted a 5.88 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP.

Enormous thanks to TwinsCards.com, which is where I found all these images.

[UPDATE:] The Braves have cut Mark Redman ('95). Adjust all relevant stats accordingly.

The Streak: Torii Hunter

This is a little bit less than some of the previous posts here, it has been a ridiculously busy week. Hopefully, we'll be back to full length stuff next week. Thanks for reading!

Torii Hunter brought a 21-game hitting streak into last night's game against the White Sox. Javier Vasquez kept him hitless through his first three at-bats, but he extended the streak to 22 with his game-tying RBI single in the eighth off of David Aardsma. Hunter has always been known as a streaky hitter but this hitting streak is by far the longest of his career.

The streak started off on April 11 against the Yankees when Hunter went 2 for 4 with two doubles. Since then he has extended the streak nine times in his first at-bat of the game, while he has only waited until his last at-bat twice to get a hit. This streak includes Hunter getting hit in the mouth in Kansas City in his first at-bat of that game and having to leave. Since he did not have an official at-bat, the streak stayed alive. Thus, Hunter has the statistical oddity of having a 22-game hitting streak over 23 games.

Over the course of the streak, he has put up a line of .378/.406/.678 while the rest of the Twins have hit .274/.335/.370. Obviously Hunter has been responsible for a large portion of the Twins power over the last month. In fact, Hunter has almost a quarter of the extra base hits (17 for Hunter, 60 for everyone else) in less than 10% of the plate appearances. Hunter has hit five homeruns during his streak, the rest of the Twins have mustered only ten. Hunter's BABIP is an astronomical .426 in this stretch which is as impressive as it is unsustainable. (Derek Jeter had the highest in the majors last season at .391). Over his career Torii's BABIP has always hovered around the league average, and I would be surprised if it doesn't level off and return to that point as the season goes on.

During the streak Hunter is hitting .314 (11 of 35) with runners on base and slugging .600 with 4 doubles and 2 homeruns, which is pretty good under normal circumstances but actually represents a dropoff from his overall hitting over this period. This is probably why his Win Probability Added (WPA) during this streak isn't as large as you might think, in 22 games, he actually has a negative WPA (-3.7%). Still, he has certainly come up with some big hits, including the game-tying RBI last night and a grand slam off of Jeff Weaver in Seattle.

As I metioned in the introduction, Hunter has always been known as a streaky hitter. Since 2002, Hunter has 3 (now 4) hitting streaks of 10 games or more. Most notable of these are the two streaks in May of 2006 which were separated by a single 0 for 4 game. Comparing Hunter's current streak to these others, I feel comfortable saying that we haven't seen Hunter hitting the ball this well for this long in the last five years. Getting on base is another matter, the other streaks all seemed to correspond with a nearly 1:1 SO/BB ratio, but clearly Hunter has been his free-swinging self during this streak. This actually worries me a little bit, because if and when this streak ends, if Torii goes into one of his cold spins, he doesn't appear interested in working the count and being at least a reasonably patient hitter, which could bode for an especially difficult time ahead. Alternatively, he's just seeing the ball so well right now that he is best served by going up there hacking, and once he cools off a bit, some patience will result. Having seen Hunter's approach at the plate for several years, I hope it's the latter, but I fear it's the former.

STREAK	GM	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO	BB	BA	OBP	SLG
4/11 to 5/8/07	22	90	34	12	0	5	17	3	.378	.406	.678
5/3 to 5/13/06	10	39	17	4	0	2	7	5	.436	.500	.692
5/15 to 5/27/06	11	40	14	2	0	1	7	7	.350	.438	.475
9/7 to 9/20/04	11	40	15	3	0	2	8	6	.375	.468	.600

Of course, the longer Hunter keeps this amazing pace going, the better for the Twins. In the four streaks outlined above the Twins record is 32-22 (.593). That is certainly a pace that Twins fans could live with given some of the struggles thus far this season. Enjoy it while it lasts, hopefully we'll see a couple more long hot streaks from Hunter this year. After all, it is a contract year.

[UPDATE:] - Gleeman makes the point today that he thinks hitting streaks are a bit overrated, and I think some of the points I made above bear that out. I'd rather see Hunter hit lights out with guys on base and have some hitless games than extend his hitting streak with a meaningless infield single (like he did in the Red Sox series). It was nice to see that both Gleeman and I took note of the SO/BB discrepancy in this current stretch.

I thought it would be interesting to look at Hunter during one of his patented "hot streaks". But it turns out that maybe he's not exactly carrying the team on his back (witness the high SO total and the negative WPA).

[FURTHER UPDATE: 5/11] - Jesse at Twinkie Town looks at the streak now that it's over and comes to a lot of the same conclusions as I did. Torii's new streak starts tonight!

Who Is Denard Span?

Preface;

With the conclusion of the most important issue of the pre-season, the Twins starting rotation, having been decided its time to move on to other important issues. Today I'll be covering Denard Span, the Twins center fielder of the future. It's widely known that the man Denard will have to replace, Twins legend Torii Hunter, is in the final year of his contact and that the Twins will either need to move him or lose him. Once this happens it will be the end of an era of sorts in Twins history as he is the final holdover from the 2001 season when the Twins began a streak of 5 consecutive winning seasons which ended the doldrums the team had been living in since their 1991 World Series victory and ushered in a new era of perennial contention. An era that will likely be left to the protection of youngsters such as Span and Alexi Casilla.

Who is Denard Span;

Born February 27, 1984, the 23 year old Span was the Twins 1st round selection with the 20th pick in 2002. A left handed hitter, Span is more of Juan Pierre than a Torii Hunter having hit only 4 home runs in 1452 combined minor league at-bats in his four year minor league career. Twins fans got a glimpse of what's to come from Span this spring as he hit .359 in 36 spring at-bats over 13 games before being sent down to AAA to get some polish.

While many in the Twins organization rave about his speed, and rightly so, I think he's still got quite a ways to go as he really doesn't seem to have figured out exactly how to read pitchers, an opinion based on his 67% career stolen base rate in the minors. But you also know the raw speed is there because he had 6 triples in 536 at-bats last year at AA New Britain. In 2004 Baseball-America rated him as the Twins fastest player, best fielder, and also its best athlete. Praise like that combined with a spring like he had is certain to generate a lot of hope. I for one am a believer that Span could very well turn out to be every bit as good as advertised but I'm not sold that he is ready yet. Two things in particular worry me, the SB% I mentioned earlier and a very low walk rate. His BABIP of .331 is pretty good and tells us he's both fast enough to beat out grounders he hits deep into holes and that he gets enough line drives to be successful.
Another good sign is that in536 at-bats last year he struck out only 78 times, still almost twice as much as he walked but still only 14% of the time which means for his age he has a pretty advanced feel for the strike-zone leaving hope that he could tun into a very good leadoff-type hitter.

Whether or not Span will become a capable replacement to Torii Hunter in center field is largely a decision of his own making. Clearly he has the talent to stick at the major league level, and while he'll never be a super-star he can provide the things the Twins have built their success on, speed and defense. I don't think he's there yet, but he's getting awfully close.