A Look Back: Recent Twins Draft History, Part I

With the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft on the horizon, this is the first of two articles looking at the Twins' most recent drafts. This part looks at the first round picks of the last fifteen years and how they are faring (or have fared) in professional baseball. Next week I will look at the Twins minor leagues and how the draft has been used to stock the Twins system.

In the last 15 years, the Twins have drafted 22 players (including the supplemental first round). Of those 22, they have signed 20 of them (91%). They have drafted 9 pitchers, although recently there has been a larger focus at that position as five of the last eight first round picks have been pitchers. 4 outfielders and 3 catchers have also been drafted in the first round by the Twins.

Ten of these players have already made their major league debut with the Minnesota Twins, while eight more remain in the farm system awaiting their chance. That leaves two players (B. J. Garbe '99 and Ryan Mills '98) who never made it to the major league level after being drafted in the first round by the Twins. Incidentally, The Twins current roster (and disabled list) contains four of their first round picks (Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, and Perkins).

Of the ten players who have made it to the bigs, Matt Garza and Adam Johnson were the fastest, reaching the majors in their second season in the Twins organization. The average time from draft to debut was 3.8 years for those ten picks.

To satisfy all your curiosity, here are some words and numbers about each of the Twins first round draft picks in the last 15 years:

	2006 - Chris Parmelee - (20th overall - OF) currently with Beloit (A) Parmelee turned heads with his fast start last year. He hit 8 home runs in 45 games last year at the Rookie level before a late promotion to Beloit. Overall he hit .273/.369/.500 last year which resulted in his being listed as the #94 prospect in Baseball America's top 100 prospects of 2007. So far this year, he's hit .226/.305/.374 at Beloit with two home runs. Some eyebrows have been raised by his high strikeout total (38 SO in 115 AB) but he's only 19 years old, so he's still got plenty of time to develop. His mix of patience and power are the attributes that lead to the Twins selecting him in the first round.
	2005 - Matt Garza - (25th overall - P) currently with Rochester (AAA) - 1 ML season Garza's unbelievably fast rise through the farm system last year caught a lot of attention, and he was ranked #21 in Baseball America's top 100 prospects of 2007. He began last season with Fort Myers and pitched his way to promotions to New Britain and then Rochester, and finally, Minnesota. In nine starts with the Twins, Garza pitched 50 innings, allowing 32 earned runs (5.76 ERA) while striking out 6.8 per nine innings. He began the 2007 season at Rochester and is currently boasting a 3.86 ERA with 8.4 K/9 through his first nine starts. It's only a matter of time until Garza dons a Twins uniform again.
	2005 - Henry Sanchez - (39th overall - 1B) currently with Elizabethton (Rookie), 3rd minor league season Sanchez was drafted out of high school and spent some time at Beloit last year. That stint, combined with his time in rookie ball gives a career line of .211/.274/.351 coming into this year. Sanchez is currently recovering from an injury, and so I couldn't find any stats from this season. It doesn't seem like he's on the fast track right now, but only time will tell.
	2004 - Trevor Plouffe - (20th overall - SS) currently with New Britain (AA), 4th minor league season Drafted out of high school as the first of 5 first-round picks for the Twins in 2004, Plouffe has spent the last two seasons at A level before his promotion this year. In the previous three seasons he has hit .244/.321/.353. So far this season, Plouffe has hit .250/.306/.402 with the uptick in power due mostly to an increased number of doubles (11 2B out of 33 hits). Plouffe's defense has also been improved according to scouts, which adds to the overall optimistic picture for this prospect.
	2004 - Glen Perkins - (22nd overall - P) currently with Minnesota Twins, 2nd ML season After being drafted from the University of Minnesota, Perkins made his debut in the stretch run for the Twins last season and was called up early this season, where he stayed until a recent injury put him on the disabled list. In those two stints, Perkins has 16 appearances, all out of the bullpen, with an ERA of 3.38, a 1.19 WHIP, and 6.75 K/9. In the minors, Perkins moved quickly, never spending more than one year at any level. He started 60 games while posting an ERA of 3.36, a 1.24 WHIP, and 9.63 K/9
	2004 - Kyle Waldrop - (25th overall - P) currently with New Britain (AA), 4th minor league season Waldrop was recently promoted to New Britain after getting off to a good start this year. In eight starts, he averaged 5.5 IP, had an ERA of 2.86 while striking out 41 in 44 innings. His first start at AA also looked good, as Waldrop allowed one earned run in seven innings. Since signing with the Twins, he has spent a year at rookie ball, followed by two years split betwixt Beloit and Fort Myers at the A level. In his minor league career, Waldrop has an ERA of 3.83, a WHIP of 1.21, while maintaining a SO/BB ratio of 4 to 1 and striking out 6.3 batters per 9 innings.
	2004 - Matthew Fox - (35th overall - P) currently with Beloit (A), 3rd minor league season Originally drafted, but not signed, in 2001 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Fox attended the University of Central Florida before being drafted by the Twins. 2007 represents his first season above rookie level due to a injury to his labrum which took his 2005 season. He's only appeared in one game thus far this year as he spent time at extended spring training, but he did pitch a scoreless inning in that appearance.
	2004 - Jay Rainville - (39th overall - P) currently with Fort Myers (A), 3rd minor league season Jay Rainville was drafted out of high school and began with one season at the rookie level, followed by parts of a season with Beloit and Fort Myers. In those two seasons, his ERA was 3.06 and his WHIP was 1.20. He would miss the entire 2006 season with an arm injury before returning this year where he left off, at Fort Myers. Rainville has eight starts this season for the Miracle, he has a 3.22 ERA in those starts with a 1.27 WHIP while averaging 4.5 IP/start.
	2003 - Matt Moses - (21st overall - 3B) currently with Rochester (AAA), 5th minor league season The Twins drafted Moses out of high school, and he spent a little more than a season at each level through the Twins system hitting .261/.323/.402 over the last four seasons. This is his first year at AAA, and he's hitting .244/.264/.341. On a positive note Moses posted his highest home run total last season at New Britain (15, 31.6 AB/HR) which is a good sign for one of the Twins power hitting prospects.
	2002 - Denard Span - (20th overall - OF) currently with Rochester (AAA), 5th minor league season Span has long been tagged as Torii Hunter's successor in centerfield for the Twins. Due to Mr. Hunter, Span hasn't progressed to the majors as quickly as others on this list, but in his four previous seasons in the minors (none above AA), he has hit .288/.359/.346 while stealing 76 bases in about 1600 plate appearances. In his first season at AAA this year, Span is hitting .226/.282/.299 with 10 stolen bases.
	2001 - Joe Mauer - (1st pick overall - C) currently with Minnesota Twins, 4th ML season, .323/.403/.472 Mauer started the season with the Twins in 2004 after the departure of A. J. Pierzynski. Unfortunately, due to injury, he would only appear in 35 games that year. Since then, Mauer has become a hitting machine, he won the batting title last season and posted a career high average (.347) and OBP (.446). Last year, Mauer won numerous accolades, including the Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star selection, and he garnered enough votes to place 6th in the AL MVP race. Mauer is currently on the disabled list with a leg injury but prior to that was still hitting well (.353/.446/.480).
	2000 - Adam Johnson - (2nd overall - P) 2 major league seasons, 10.25 ERA, 2.05 WHIP Johson shot through the minor leagues, reaching the Majors after short stops at A, AA, and AAA in 2001. He would appear in seven games for the major league club including four starts, posting an 8.28 ERA and a 1.8 WHIP. After spending 2002 at AAA, Johnson made another brief appearance with the Twins in 2003, appearing in two games, pitching 1.1 innings and allowing eight runs. After another season in the minors, Johnson was released by Twins in 2005 and signed by the Oakland A's. After a couple of seasons in the Oakland farm system, Johnson is out of professional baseball.
	1999 - B. J. Garbe - (5th overall - OF) 6 minor league seasons Garbe was drafted out of high school by the Twins and spent two years each at the A and AA levels of the Twins organization. He hit .218/.298/.294 in those four seasons before he was traded in 2004 for Pat Borders. Garbe spent time in the Mariners and Marlins farm systems until 2006, but I couldn't find a current team for him this season.
	1998 - Ryan Mills - (6th overall - P) 7 minor league seasons Mills was originally drafted by the Yankees in the 13th round of the 1995 draft, but instead attended Arizona State University until the Twins drafted him in the first round. Mills would spend about two years at each level of the minors (as a starter at A and AA; and in the bullpen at AAA) but didn't excel at any of them, as he posted a record of 17-40 with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.73 while walking 5.9 batters per nine innings. After 2004, the Twins released Mills and he hasn't resurfaced anywhere else that I can find.
	1997 - Michael Cuddyer - (9th overall - SS/1B/2B/3B/OF) currently with Minnesota Twins, 7th ML season, .269/.341/.454 Cuddyer had his breakout year last year when he hit 41 doubles and 24 home runs with a .284/.362/.504 line. It's probably not coincidental that last season marked the first time Cuddyer played more than 95 games at any one position (142 games in right field). He made his debut in 2001, but spent significant time in the minors each of the next three seasons.
	1997 - Matt LeCroy - (50th overall - C) currently with Rochester (AAA) - 7 ML seasons The Mets drafted LeCroy initially in 1994, but he went to Clemson University instead for three seasons before the Twins drafted him. LeCroy made his debut with the Twins in 2000 and played six seasons with the Twins before he was granted free agency after the 2005 season. In those six seasons, LeCroy hit .275/.346/.460 with the Twins while averaging about 240 plate appearances per year. His best year was 2003 (coincidentally the year he got the most at-bats) when he hit 17 home runs while posting a line of .287/.342/.490. After a year in Washington, LeCroy returned to the Twins in the off-season as a free agent and is currently hitting .197/.256/.291 at AAA Rochester.
	1996 - Travis Lee - (2nd overall - 1B - did not sign) 9 year ML career, .256/.337/.408
	1995 - Mark Redman - (13th overall - P) currently with Atlanta Braves, 9th ML season Redman spent time with the Twins in three seasons from 1999 to 2001. However, the only consistent action he saw was in 2000, when he started 24 games and posted an ERA of 4.76, 7.0 K/9, and a 1.41 WHIP, which was good enough to place him 6th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Those numbers only differ from his career numbers in the frequency of strikeouts (5.5 career K/9, 4.75 ERA, 1.42 WHIP). He was traded to the Detroit Tigers at the deadline of the next year for Todd Jones. After leaving the Twins, Redman has been named an All-Star once ('06 with Kansas City) and won a World Series ('03 with Florida).
	1994 - Todd Walker - (8th overall - 2B) currently with Oakland Athletics, 12th ML season Walker made his debut with the Twins in 1996 and spent four seasons with the Twins, including a spectacular 1998 season where he posted career highs in BA (.316), OBP (.372) and OPS+ (119). In his Twins tenure, he hit .285/.341/.413 which corresponds with his career line of .289/.348/.435. He was traded to Colorado for another Todd, Todd Sears, in July of 2000.
	1993 - Torii Hunter - (20th overall - OF) currently with Minnesota Twins, 11th ML season, .271/.324/.469 Hunter has patrolled center field for the Twins for the better part of the last nine seasons. In that time, his best performance to date was the 2002 season when he hit .289/.334/.524, won a start in the All-Star game, and came in 6th in the AL MVP voting. This year Hunter is demolishing all those numbers hitting an astronomical .318/.353/.611 so far. Hunter has also won six Gold Gloves and has been widely regarded as one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game.
	1993 - Jason Varitek - (21st overall - C - did not sign) currently with Boston Red Sox, 11th ML season, .269/.349/.449 2-time All-Star ('03, '05), Silver Slugger (2005), World Series (2004)
	1992 - Dan Serafini - (26th overall - P) six major league seasons Serafini had a six year career in the major leagues starting with three seasons with the Twins from 1996 to 1998 before his contract was purchased by the Chicago Cubs. With the Twins Serafini appeared in 35 games and for a couple stretches filled in as a starter. He started 14 games, posting a 5.45 ERA while averaging 5.1 innings per start with a 1.57 WHIP and 4.7 K/9 in those games. Overall with the Twins, Serafini posted a 5.88 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP.

Enormous thanks to TwinsCards.com, which is where I found all these images.

[UPDATE:] The Braves have cut Mark Redman ('95). Adjust all relevant stats accordingly.

Grading the Bullpen

With an off day on Monday coinciding with the end of April, plenty of Twins bloggers took the opportunity to recap the season so far. Given their excellent work, and the ongoing This Week in Twins feature written by Andrew Berg here at MNSG (which is always worth the read), I won't throw my hat in that ring, but rather we're going to take a more focused look at one aspect of the Twins ballclub, the bullpen.

Coming into this season, the Twins starting rotation was a sizeable question mark, but the bullpen was considered to be a strength. Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Dennys Reyes, Matt Guerrier, and one of the best closers in the game Joe Nathan were all returning pieces from a very solid bullpen last year. Glen Perkins started the year in AAA Rochester, but was quickly called up to provide an extra arm for Ron Gardenhire out of the pen. The Twins starters have averaged just over 6 innings per start, and at least one member of the bullpen has appeared in every game thus far this season, pitching 77 innings in 26 games. Given the importance of the bullpen and its perceived strength, let's take a look at how they are performing thus far.

Here are some selected stats for the Twins bullpen, listed alphabetically by middle initial (WXRL and Leverage stats are current through the weekend series):

PITCHER	G	IP	ER	H	BB	SO	WHIP	WXRL	Lev	K/9	BB/9
Jesse A. Crain	10	10.0	7	10	2	5	1.20	-0.161	1.57	4.5	1.8
Pat J. Neshek	12	12.0	3	6	4	12	0.83	0.969	1.06	9.0	3.0
Juan M. Rincon	11	10.2	2	10	8	14	1.69	0.182	1.64	11.8	6.8
Joe M. Nathan	12	12.1	3	16	4	12	1.62	0.899	2.04	8.8	2.9
Matt O. Guerrier	11	16.0	4	6	4	8	0.63	0.739	0.83	4.5	2.3
Dennys V. Reyes	15	7.2	6	13	7	7	2.61	-0.143	1.00	8.2	8.2
Glen W. Perkins	6	8.1	4	7	6	7	1.56	-0.002	0.63	7.6	6.5

First a word on the grades that you're about to see. I started everyone off at a C, and then, for a good performance, I bumped them up, and conversely, for a bad performance the overall grade dropped. I'm an optimist by nature, so I've tried to keep that in check a little bit by using Win Probability Added (which can be found at FanGraphs for each game) to settle any borderline performances.

Jesse A. Crain

Highest WPA - 4/3 vs. Bal, entered with Twins leading 3-2 with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd, faced a single batter, inducing a flyout to end the inning
Lowest WPA - 4/29 @ Det, entered a 3-3 tie, and, after one scoreless inning, gave up the game winning homerun to Brandon Inge

Recently Crain has certainly struggled. He was on the mound when the Indians broke a 3-3 tie in the 12th by scoring 4 runs (all charged to Jesse), and he also gave up Brandon Inge's walk-off homerun on Sunday. Perhaps these struggles are a result of a shoulder strain which kept him out for seven games (WPA before 24.5 in 4 games, WPA after -31.4 in 7 games). He's been used in high leverage situations, only Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon have a higher leverage index, and has done relatively well when brought into pressure situations. He has only allowed 1 of his 6 inherited runners to score (that was in the Yankees series with the Twins already trailing 6-0). He also hasn't got into too many jams, he's finished every inning he's started except the aforementioned debacle against the Indians in the 12th.

His WXRL is the lowest on the team thus far, and he hasn't really given us much to be optimistic about recently. Hopefully his shoulder will get back to full strength and his early season form will return.
Ray's Grade: C- (his early success keeps this from being lower)

Pat J. Neshek

Highest WPA - 4/23 vs. Cle, entered a tie game with the bases loaded and 2 out and retired the first batter with a strikeout. He also added another scoreless inning in the outing.
Lowest WPA - 4/19 @ Sea, entered with the Twins leading 6-2. Pat allowed a hit, a walk, and a homerun in 2/3 of an inning.

Neshek has been outstanding, the only runs he has allowed this year were on the homerun in a game where it made very little difference in the outcome of the game. He has inherited 8 runners and not allowed any of them to score. At no point has Neshek left the game with runners on base. The first batter Neshek has faced is hitting .111/.250/.222 with 4 strikeouts in 12 plate appearances, while with runners on base the numbers are similar, .136/.174/.318.

Neshek is one of two Twins relievers with a WHIP below 1.00, he has the highest WXRL of the bullpen. Oddly, his leverage index is hovering around 1. I would predict that number to come up as Gardenhire uses Neshek in more pressure packed situations with his continued success.
Ray's Grade: A-

Juan M. Rincon

Highest WPA - 4/26 v. KC, entered a 0-0 tie and pitched a 1-2-3 inning.
Lowest WPA - 4/12 v. TB, entered with a 2-0 lead, pitched 1/3 of an inning allowing a homerun, two singles, and a walk, allowing the Rays to tie the game before Neshek bailed him out.

It's difficult to asses Rincon, because even his good outings just aren't that inspiring, he's only had two outings where he hasn't allowed a baserunner. Rincon has the second highest leverage index in the bullpen behind Joe Nathan, he's pitched marginally well in pressure situations. His WPA is hurt by the very bad outing versus Tampa (-50.5 WPA) which counters his other 10 appearances (+51.4 WPA) of which the lowest is -1. He has allowed 3 of the 5 runners he has inherited to score and on 3 different outings other members of the bullpen have saved his bacon, of the 5 runners the bullpen has inherited from Rincon, none of them have scored.
Ray's Grade: B- (not enough positive outings to improve this too much)

Joe M. Nathan

Highest WPA - 4/26 v. KC, entered 0-0 tie and pitched two scoreless innings
Lowest WPA - 4/15 v. TB, entered 4-4 tie, allowed hits to the first three batters and took the loss, allowing two runs.

Other than back-to-back rough outings against Tampa Bay, Joe Nathan has been very good this year. Of course, we've come to expect nothing less. Nathan's numbers aren't quite what we are used to however. Opposing batters are hitting .320/.370/.420 against him including .345/.367/.414 with runners on base. When entering with a lead (8 games) Nathan has only allowed one run and racked up 36.7 WPA, compared to -37.6 WPA in the other 4 games.

Obviously, I'd like to see Nathan's WHIP come down some, but overall, as long as he continues to be lights out with the lead, I'll be happy. The other concerning stat I came across is that Nathan has thrown by far the most pitches of any of the relievers (222, next closest was 195 by Neshek in the same amount of innings) so that will definitely be something to watch for going forward.
Ray's Grade: B

Matt O. Guerrier

Highest WPA - 4/26 vs. KC, entered a 0-0 tie with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out. He retired the first batter he faced, and added two more scoreless innings.
Lowest WPA - 4/20 @ KC, entered with Twins trailing 7-6. Allowed a homerun in his first inning, then allowed the first two batters to reach (single, hit by pitch) in his second. Rincon and Reyes allowed both of those runners to score.

Guerrier has been the surprise of the bullpen thus far this season. Originally expected to be an innings eater, he's pitched so well that we've started to see him in more important situations. In contrast to Joe Nathan's 18.0 pitches per inning, Guerrier has breezed through his appearances at 12.5 P/IP. Matt has the second highest WPA of the Twins bullpen, and has not allowed any of his six inherited runners to score (including 4/18 @ Sea, when he entered with the bases loaded and one out and got out of it with a strikeout and a flyout).

Essentially Guerrier has done everything asked of him. He has a higher WXRL than Reyes, Rincon, and Crain despite having a much lower leverage index. That WXRL is due to nothing more than excellent pitching. He has the lowest WHIP of the relievers and he has finished every inning except the one outing in Kansas City.
Ray's Grade: B+

Dennys V. Reyes

Highest WPA - 4/12 v. TB, entered with the Twins leading 2-0 with a runner on second with 2 out. Reyes retired the only batter he faced with a strikeout.
Lowest WPA - 4/18 @ Sea, entered with the Twins leading 5-3 with runners on first and second with 1 out. Reyes loaded the bases with a single to the only batter he faced. Matt Guerrier came in and got out of the jam (see above).

Reyes has not been good. It's not fair to compare to his numbers last year, because that was a career year for almost any reliever, but regardless, he has had 3 outings where he didn't record an out, and 12 of 15 outings he's allowed a runner to reach base. The rest of the bullpen has inherited 17 runners from Dennys and only allowed one to score. On the plus side, while Dennys was on the mound he hasn't allowed any of his 8 inherited runners to score.

His WHIP is outrageous, but perhaps more disturbing is the performance of Reyes against the first batter he faced in his appearances. They are hitting .500/.600/.833! This is not what you want to see from someone who comes out of the bullpen usually with the purpose of getting one or two batters.
Ray's Grade: F

Glen W. Perkins

Highest WPA - 4/23 v. Cle, entered trailing 3-0. Pitched 2.1 scoreless innings as the Twins tied the game.
Lowest WPA - 4/20 v. KC, entered trailing 5-4 with a runner on first and 1 out. He allowed that runner to score as well as one more, giving up 3 hits and a walk.

Perkins hasn't pitched poorly, but he certainly hasn't wowed anyone either. His WXRL and leverage tell the story, Glen Perkins has been a replacement level pitcher, used in situations that call for a replacement level pitcher. He has walked a batter in five of his six outings, which is something that needs to change for Perkins to become an effective pitcher.
Ray's Grade: C

Those are my grades. Seth, over at Seth Speaks, has also assigned grades to all the Twins players for April, including the bullpen. Here's how my grades stack up with his. The weighted GPA (4.0 scale) takes into account the number of innings pitched and the leverage index so that those who pitched more innings in pressure situations have grades that count for more.

PITCHER	Ray's Grade	Seth's Grades
Jesse A. Crain	C-	D
Pat J. Neshek	A-	A-
Juan M. Rincon	B-	B+
Joe M. Nathan	B	C+
Matt O. Guerrier	B+	B+
Dennys V. Reyes	F	F
Glen W. Perkins	C	C-
Bullpen GPA	2.33	2.19
Weighted GPA	2.58	2.40

From the weighted GPA, the overall grade for the bullpen thus far is a B-. That seems a little bit low given that this is still viewed as one of the best bullpens in the majors. Perhaps it's an indication of the high expectations that come along with the previous success of this bullpen. Those are my thoughts on the Twins bullpen. Where do you disagree? Was I too harsh? too lenient? Let me know in the comments.